Predictions for the 2014 Academy Award for Best Foreign Film- ASIA

 

It's that time of year again.....

In April, GREECE became the first country to elect their "Best Picture" of the year to enter in the Oscar race for Best Foreign Language Film.

Over the years, 104 different countries have entered the race for an Oscar (92 have entered in the past ten years) and on this blog, we give them all equal treatment whether they sent a single film in the 1970s (like Cote d'Ivoire....they won....) or whether they've entered every year since the category was created in 1956 (like France, who has 12 wins but none since "Indochine" won twenty years ago).

Last year, I saw 34 of the record 71 submissions and I thought the five nominees were all "good". However, I was disappointed that more daring films like "The Patience Stone" (Afghanistan) and "Pieta" (Korea) didn't make the finals. My personal favorites were "Les Intouchables" (France) and "Jaque Mate" (Dominican Republic) though I will confess that both of these were "guilty pleasures" and not necessarily Oscar-worthy films.

This year, I'm dividing the world up into four regions-
I- Asia and the Pacific (26 countries),
II- The Americas + Sub-Saharan Africa (26 countries),
III- Western, Central and Northern Europe (26 countries)
IV- the Middle East (including North Africa) and Eastern Europe (including the Balkans)

I've nearly completed my research this year, but feel free to write and tell me what you think your country will send to the Oscars. Most countries won't select their films until September but I'm moving to Seoul this summer, so I've gotten an early start....There will definitely be films coming out this summer that I've surely missed.

Let's start with the region that Oscar completely ignored last year- Asia. 16 of these countries sent films last year to compete, and I think we'll see 17 this year, with New Zealand and Sri Lanka probably rejoining the competition, and Kyrgyzstan likely bowing out.

COUNTRY MOST LIKELY TO ENTER: Japan and Taiwan haven't missed a competition in more than thirty years.
LEAST LIKELY TO ENTER: Probably Fiji, which I think has nothing eligible.
MOST LIKELY TO GET AN OSCAR NOMINATION: It's a bit early to tell, but I'm betting on Hong Kong!


1. AFGHANISTAN- "Wajma: An Afghan Love Story" Despite continuing violence and instability, Afghanistan has become a semi-regular participant in the Foreign Oscar competition since their 2002 debut. Last year, an Afghan filmmaker received an Oscar nomination for the first time (for “Bukhashi Boys” in the Best Live-Action Short category) and they probably also deserved a Foreign Film nod for the riveting “The Patience Stone”, whose sexual themes would have merited the director a death sentence a decade ago. Despite (or perhaps due to) the country’s misogynistic recent history, the Afghan Academy usually submits stories highlighting the lives of women and girls. This year is no exception. The front-runner is “Wajma: An Afghan Love Story”, which won a Screenwriting Prize at Sundance for its story of a woman who is ostracized by family when she becomes pregnant during a secret engagement. The challenger is “A Man’s Desire for a Fifth Wife”, about the plight of Afghan women suffering under abusive marriages. Marina Golbahari, the 10-year old star of “Osama”, now a beautiful 23-year old woman, has a new movie but I don’t think it will be released in time.

2. AUSTRALIA- "The Rocket" Australia is likely to submit the exotic Lao-language “The Rocket” about a little boy who is believed to be cursed since he was born as a twin. When his extended family learns his secret (the other twin died at birth), he is forced out since they fear he will bring the family misfortune. The boy then is forced to try and find a new home on his own. “The Rocket” won three awards in Berlin (including a Crystal Bear) and three awards at Tribeca (including Best Narrative Feature), and it’s already set to have a 2013 U.S. release (through Kino Lorber). It's a shoo-in to represent the Aussies.

3. BANGLADESH- "Television" Bangladesh rarely has movies that compete at the international level , which is why it was a point of pride that Mostafa Farooki’s comic satire “Television” was selected as the Closing Film at the Pusan International Film Festival, and was cited by many critics as one of the festival's most charming surprises. Farooki’s film is about a remote Bangladeshi hamlet whose headman rules the village as an omnipotent dictator, banning television and other “sinful” influences. Eventually, his worldview is changed by a series of mishaps revolving around his upcoming pilgrimage to Mecca. The film is said to be charming and delightful and has been selected for fests in Dubai and Gotheborg. The only obstacle I foresee is that the film seems to have been produced independently of Bangladesh’s cliquey filmmaking system (almost all Bangladeshi Oscar submissions have been made by the dominant studio, Impress Telefilms). However, Farooki has worked with Impress Telefilms before, so I still think this will be their pick. If the Bangladeshis look elsewhere, I could see them choosing “Pita” (from Impress Telefilms), a more traditional production about the 1971 Liberation War seen from the perspective of a father living in a mixed Muslim-Hindu village during the massacres by Pakistani soldiers. Less likely: “Runaway” (which I predicted last year as runner-up), another well-reviewed independent film which finally premiered in Dhaka in March after a year on the film festival circuit. It’s about a rickshaw driver who helps to reunite street children with their families. My prediction: “Television”

 

 4. BHUTAN- "Thank You, Sir!!" The Bhutanese entered the race once in 1999 with the delightful, Oscar-worthy “The Cup”. Tiny Bhutan does have a domestic film industry and runs its own National Film Awards. This year’s awards (announced in May) split the main awards between three films. “Thank You Sir” won most of the most awards (11), but “Jarim Sarim Yeshey Tshogyel”, about a woman from a dysfunctional family who dreams of becoming Miss Bhutan, won Best Picture while “Poenlop Agay Haap” won the all-important cultural awards. I know that Bhutan won’t send anything, but for the sake of completion I’ll choose the expensive “Thank You Sir”. Also of note, Bhutan’s first and only international director, (monk Khyentse Norbu, "The Cup", "Travellers & Magicians") has a new film out this year (“Vara: The Blessing”) but it’s in English.

5. CAMBODIA- "The Missing Picture" Cambodia returned to the Oscar race last year with labor of love “Lost Loves” and they could very well return this year with documentary “The Missing Picture”. Though documentaries rarely score here, director Rithy Panh won the Un Certain Regard Prize at Cannes 2013- probably the highest honor ever received by a Cambodian film. The France-based Panh, Cambodia’s  most internationally well-known filmmaker and director of Cambodia’s 1994 Oscar submission, narrates this unusual, autobiographical documentary about the death of his family during the 1975-1979 genocide, using clay figures.

 

6. CHINA- "Back to 1942" China's Academy has a dilemma. Their three most critically acclaimed films of the year are all by directors who have annoyed the Communist regime by speaking out against the government’s censorship policies. Jia Zhangke’s “A Touch of Sin” was warmly received at Cannes 2013 (with a Best Screenplay Award) but Zhang started his career as an underground filmmaker. In fact, Zhang has said publicly that he has stopped production on several past films rather than conform to the whims of the government censors. “A Touch of Sin” was approved for release in China, but it’s indictment of social problems in modern-day China  (prostitution, the wealth gap, government cover-ups) would make it an odd choice. Lou Ye’s “Mystery” played at Cannes 2012 and won Best Picture at the Asian Film Awards, but the film has divided the critics and Lou was banned from making films twice by the Chinese authorities for making movies (“Suzhou River” and “Summer Palace”) without government approval. His latest ban has expired but “Mystery” still hasn’t been released domestically. Feng Xiaogang is China’s biggest box-office draw, he represented China at the Oscars once before (“Aftershock”) and his hit WWII drama “Back to 1942”, about the outbreak of a wartime famine while fighting Japan, has two Oscar-winning actors in supporting roles (Adrian Brody and Tim Robbins). However, Feng also royally pissed off the Chinese authorities in April by making a speech during a televised award ceremony, noting that “censorship is torment” (it was bleeped out) in China today. Feng also famously said in 2010 that he doesn't care about Oscars and that he made his films for Chinese audiences, not Western ones. And Chuan Lu hasn’t pissed anyone off personally, but his movie has…”The Last Supper” is set in 200BC, but some have claimed it is an allegory for Mao Zedong's gradual seizure of power. That delayed its release from summer to fall, making it eligible this year. Reviews were better overseas than home in China.  What will China do? Well, they could choose an up-and-coming director (though they usually don’t) with a festival favorite like “A Useless Man” (Shanghai Film Festival; set in the 1930s) or either of a pair of films about women trying to make it in the 1990s- box-office hit “So Young” and the more serious “Feng Shui” (Tokyo). They could also (foolishly) select a nationalist dramedy set in the US, namely “American Dreams in China”, though I don’t think they’re dumb enough to do that....Of note, they had the biggest box-office hit in Mainland China history (“Lost in Thailand”) but that won’t matter at Oscar time. My prediction: it’s “Last Supper” vs. “Back to 1942”…it depends how angry they are at Feng Xiaogang. I predict he’ll get it. 

7. FIJI- Nothing eligible??? Tiny Fiji submitted just one film (the first-ever Fijian feature film) in 2005, but most of their involvement in international cinema is as a shooting location. They do have a local film in production called “Unlimited Tamasa”  (in Hindi, the language of 40% of Fijians) which is scheduled to be completed in July but this slapstick comedy-cum-Bollywood-musical about a magic whitening cream is an unlikely Oscar candidate! Anyway, it probably won't premiere until the next Oscar cycle.


8. HONG KONG- "The Grandmaster" Hong Kong is nearly certain to choose Wong Kar-wai’s “The Grandmaster”, which seems to check all the Oscar boxes- it has been praised for deftly balancing artistic and commercial elements, it was made by a renowned auteur director (Wong Kar-wai)  who has made his first box-office hit, it has big international stars (Zhang Ziyi and Tony Leung) and it opened the Berlin Film Festival where it was warmly received. This martial-arts historical drama focuses on Cantonese martial arts master and hero Ip Man (subject of a series of five HK films recently) in China in the 1930s after the first Sino-Japanese War. On top of all that, “The Grandmaster” will have the Weinstein Brothers behind it, since they’ve bought the US rights. I say “The Grandmaster” is in. Hong Kong typically likes to choose genre action films so I suppose “Cold War” (Opening Film in Busan and Best Picture Winner at the HK Film Awards), about a group of renegade cops, or “Drug War” (by four-time selectee Johnnie To, and Best Picture nominee at the Asian Film Awards), about a drug lord forced to work with police to avoid the death penalty, are both going to be considered…but they’ll find it hard to bring down Wong who has, quite unbelievably, only represented Hong Kong in the race once before.  Rounding out the Top Five possibilities in a fairly weak year for Hong Kong cinema overall: melodrama “Bends” (Cannes 2013, Un Certain Regard) and Chow Yun-fat’s big-budget action movie “Monkey King”, which could benefit from an early Oscar qualifying release before its November premiere. Out of luck: “Journey to the West” may be the biggest hit in Hong Kong history, but it won’t be picked here. Prediction: The Grandmaster

9. INDIA- "The Lunchbox"

10. INDONESIA- "Sang Kiai" Indonesia is the third-largest country in the competition (behind India and China) and film output has climbed to about 80 films per year. As usual, the Indonesians don’t have any obvious Oscar nominees but they do have some well-received films so they’ll probably submit something as they have eight of the past ten years. The Indonesians tend to choose pretty historical dramas over arthouse film festival favorites. As I see it, they have five realistic possibilities: “Atambua 39 Degrees Celsius”,a drama about pro-Indonesia refugees escaping from the East Timorese conflict, “Habibie & Ainun”, a unexpected box-office success about the romance of former President Habibie and his wife, “Nine Summers, Ten Autumns”, an autobiographical rags-to-riches drama about a boy who rises above his station, “Sang Kiai”, a religiously tinged drama starring Indonesian grande dame Christine Hakim, about peaceful opposition to Japanese occupation during WWII, and “What They Don’t Talk About When They Talk About Love”, a festival favorite about blind adolescents. “Atambua” and “9 Summers” are by previously submitted directors (the director of “9 Summers” was selected last year”), “Atambua”, “Habibie”and “Sang Kiai” are the sort of historical dramas the Indonesian Academy traditionally fawns over, while “Love” has been seen most widely overseas (including Sundance and Rotterdam). “Sang Kiai” has starpower, while “Habibie”won Favorite Film at this year’s Film Festival Indonesia. It’s a very tight race but I predict the winner will be “Sang Kiai”, which combines patriotism with high production values. Runner-up: Riri Riza’s emotional “Atambua”. Dark horses include “Dream Obama” about a child going to the same school where President Obama studied many years before, “Mursala”, which overcame a lawsuit barring its release and which tells a cultural story about the nation's Batak minority, “Rectoverso”, an omnibus film that represented Indonesia at Cannes Film Market but has gotten middling reviews and “Something In the Way”, which though it competed in Berlin Panorama and Hong Kong, was mostly poorly received for its sexually explicit story of a frustrated taxi driver. Having said all that, Indonesia often has some of its strongest releases in August, so perhaps they’ll choose something I haven’t heard of yet.

11. JAPAN- "Shonen H" Japan always chooses a film out of left-field that nobody expects. They ignore their own Film Awards….except when they don’t (their 2008 and 2010 submissions- which incidentally both made the Oscar shortlist- dominated the Japanese Academy Awards, whereas their films in 2009, 2011 and 2012 netted a grand total of two minor Japanese Academy Award nominations and no wins). Sometimes they choose a commercial film that has no chance at Oscar (“Hula Girls”) and sometimes a film that no one seems to like at all (“Our Homeland”). And when they figure out what Oscar likes, they make sure never to send that kind of film again- they haven’t sent a single costume drama since getting nominated for “The Twilight Samurai” and haven’t sent a single gentle, comedy-drama since winning an Oscar for “Departures”. So, I’m about to give up on trying to predict the Japanese. Though I lived there five years, their Academy is bizarre. Three of their top contenders by three of Japan’s top directors won’t premiere until the fall, meaning they’ll be strong contenders next year (Hirokazu Koreeda’s  Cannes drama “Like Father, Like Son”, Takashi Koizumi’s war movie “Eternal Zero” and Koki Mitani’s all-star period piece “Kiyosu Kaigi”) but they'll all be eligible next year. I see seven contenders  (in alphabetical order): “Chorus of Angels”, a mystery-drama about a widowed music teacher (played by Japan’s Meryl Streep) who returns to her small Hokkaido town to meet with six ex-students, Shion Sono’s “Land of Hope”, the best-received of a slew of post-tsunami dramas,  Ryoichi Kimizuka’s “Reunion”, a tender story about a coroner dealing with the bodies of tsunami victims in a makeshift morgue, Yasuo Furuhata’s “Shonen H”, a coming-of-age story about a young boy growing up against the outbreak of World War II, Masayuki Suo’s “Terminal Trust”, about a woman dealing with terminally ill people who choose to end their lives, “Under the Nagasaki Sky”, a drama about modern-day Japanese dealing with death and religion, and “Unforgiven”, starring Oscar-nominee Ken Watanabe in a samurai-era remake of Clint Eastwood’s Best Picture winner. Four of the seven (“Reunion”, “Shonen H”, “Trust” and “Unforgiven”) are by previously submitted directors and Sono is an up-and-coming horror director who may be rewarded for a foray into more serious territory. As I’ve said the Japanese Academy is notoriously bizarre, so I’ll thrown in a few second-tier dark horses, namely: “Beyond the Vigil”, about a man who wreaks havoc when he contacts his comatose wife’s lovers,  “Millennial Rapture”, an overlong, overwrought film that probably wouldn’t be considered if it weren’t the final film made by the late Koji Wakamatsu, hilarious, super-fun comedy “Tug of War” about a misfit women’s team trying to save their factory jobs and “The Wind Rises”, the latest anime from Hayao Miyazaki. I wouldn’t hold much hope out for Takeshi Kitano’s “Outrage Beyond”….Though the film has been the most widely seen Japanese film at festivals this year, it’s a violent sequel and the Academy has never liked Kitano much. The same may go for Yoji Yamada’s “Tokyo Family”….Though Yamada is a beloved Japanese director and Oscar nominee, this remake of the classic “Tokyo Story” has gotten poisonous reviews overseas. Will the fact that “Unforgiven” is a remake of a US classic help or hurt it? Will 79-year old Furuhata’s age help him to be selected? (It didn’t last year when I predicted “Anata e”) I’m predicting that it will, and that Japan will want a more authentically Japanese story than “Unforgiven”. My prediction: “Shonen H”, with “Chorus of Angels” in second, “Reunion” in third, “Unforgiven” in a very close fourth, and “Nagasaki Sky” rounding out the Top Five. I’d love it if “Tug-of-War” makes it, but that’s asking a bit much.

12. KAZAKHSTAN- "Student" Kazakhstan has about 10 eligible films this year, and the front-runners are a pair of dramas that have quietly been building up a reputation for themselves on the international film festival circuit, namely “The Student” (Cannes  Un Certain Regard 2012) and “Harmony Lessons” (Berlin 2013). “The Student” is a re-telling of Dostoevsky’s “Crime and Punishment” set in modern-day Almaty, while “Harmony Lessons” focuses on the increasingly global problem of high-school bullying and, more specifically, the victim's subsequent desire for revenge. The Kazakhs usually like to send flashier films to the Oscars but this year the bigger-budget movies like “Sword of Victory” (about a modern-day kid who helps a medieval army win a war with the help of a magical sword) or all-star romantic musical “When A Dream Comes True” look either too silly (“Sword”) or too lightweight (“Dream”). These two festival favorites will compete alongside “The Old Man and the Steppe”, which hasn’t been seen much outside of Kazakhstan but which is a companion piece to the remarkable “Kelin” which impressed Oscar voters enough to make it to the shortlist (and a probable 8^th place) in 2009-2010. The filmmaking in “The Old Man” looks rather old-fashioned with its tale of an old man and his young apprentice lost in the wild steppes of Kazakhstan, based loosely on Hemingway’s “The Old Man and the Sea”. My prediction: the tight three-way race finds “The Student” in first place, “The Old Man” in second, and “Harmony Lessons” in third, but all are roughly equally likely. Unlikely but possible: boxing drama “Zhol” and time-travel fantasy “Realtor”.

13. KOREA- "The Face Reader" Poor Korea has tried everything. Every year, they choose a brilliant film and every year they inexplicably fail to make the shortlist. They’ve tried auteurs and festival winners (“Pieta”), they’ve tried commercial successes (“Mother”), they’ve gone funny (“Welcome to Dongmakgol”), cerebral (“Secret Sunshine”), schmaltzy (“A Barefoot Dream”) and pretty (“King and the Clown”). They’ve emulated themes from every Best Foreign Film winner in the past ten years (three movies were about relationships during wartime like “The Counterfeiters”, two were mystery-thrillers like “Secret of their Eyes”, three explored ethics under Communism like “Lives of Others”) and NOTHING EVER WORKS. I am deeply greatly to the Korean Film Council for consistently bringing some of the best films in the world to my attention year after year. Keep trying! Now to this year’s race….Korea usually announces a shortlist of six films or so before electing their final nominee. This year’s I predict the six most likely films on the list will be “The Face Reader”, “Jiseul”, “Miracle in Cell No. 7”, “Moebius”, “My Paparotti” and “Nobody’s Daughter Hae-won”. Depending on the size of the list, you might also see a torture drama by a previously submitted director (“National Security”), a gay-themed festival favorite (“White Night”), a fantasy-melodrama about the friends of a girl killed in n accident (“Dear Dolphin”), a crime thriller (“New World”), a drama about the daughter of a prostitute (“Holly”) or a popular fantasy drama (“A Werewolf Boy”), but I think these are all destined to be also-rans. As for the six top contenders, Korea is one of those countries that really tries (unsuccessfully) to get into the head of the Academy voters. That means that the bizarre box-office hit “Miracle in Cell No. 7”, about a mentally challenged man falsely convicted of rape and murder and his daughter’s efforts to set him free, will be out first. If you think it sounds Oscary, you should know it’s actually a raucous comedy. Next to fall will be “Jiseul”, a low-budget B&W drama about the real-life massacre of innocent civilians in the 1950s who were suspected of being North Korean sympathizers. If selected, “Moebius” would be auteur Kim Ki-duk’s third try at an Oscar. He just cut 80 seconds (under extreme protest) to get the Korean censors to approve the film (they objected to scenes of graphic incest) for its September (Oscar qualifying?) release. But Oscar is unlikely to enjoy incest either, and the Korean Film Council is clearly wary of the film, plus Kim was selected last year. “My Paparotti”, sounds like it was made for Oscar- a music teacher whose opera career was cut short due to illness helps reform a violent gang member and grooms him to explore his God-given talent for music. Oscar would give it heaps of awards were it to star Sandra Bullock, but I just don’t think it’s a “big” enough film to succeed here. That leaves us with period piece “The Face Reader” and “Nobody’s Daughter Hae-won”, which competed in Berlin. In the end, I think the beautiful Chosun Dynasty-era sets and costumes and palace intrigue of “The Face Reader” will win out against the more subtle charms of the quiet festival drama about a woman involved in an affair with a married man. I’m feeling confident about “The Face Reader”.

14. KYRGYZSTAN- "Salam, New York" Kyrgyzstan's small film industry held its first National Film Awards in May, with “Princess Nasik”, a drama about a little girl with an active fantasy life beating out last year’s Oscar submission “Empty Home”. I would predict “Princess” for this year except that it appears it was released a few weeks before the deadline, sadly making it ineligible. Kyrgyzstan has been seeing a film renaissance in the past year, although most of this has been in short film production. The biggest film ever made in Kyrgyzstan is going to be “Kurmanjan Datka: Queen of the Mountains”, a biopic of a Kyrgyz noblewoman who helped unite Kyrgyz tribes to fight the Russian Empire in the 19^th century. It has the support of the Ministry f Culture. However, with “Princess” released too early and with “Kurmanjan” coming out too late (early 2014...count on it representing Kyrgyzstan next year....), Kyrgyzstan doesn’t have much left to choose from. Out of the possible contenders, I think “Salam, New York”, a comedy about a Kyrgyz immigrant trying to make it big in New York City, has the edge over “Mystery of Inheritance”, about a rich man who forces his six children to solve a series of puzzles and riddles in order to collect their inheritance. 

 15. MALAYSIA- "Kil" Malaysia rejoined the Oscar race with Shakespearean family drama “Bunohan” last year after a seven-year absence. All the Best Picture nominees at the Malaysian Film Festival film awards this year (including the Best Picture winner, “Bunohan”) were eligible last year.  The Malaysians don’t have an obvious candidate and may sit out again, but they do have a few options: “Juvana” is the feature film sequel to a television series about a group of older teens serving jail time in juvenile hall. The sequel follows one of the boys after his release, and it was a critical and financial success.  “Kil” is a black comedy-thriller about a suicidal man who makes a deal with a mysterious secret organization to help him end his life....His desperate attempts to undo the deal when he falls in love and changes his mind make up the action of the film. “The New Village” is a Chinese-language historical drama about the relocation of suspected Communists to so-called “new villages” in the 1950s, although I’m very skeptical the race-conscious Malaysians will choose a Chinese film to represent the country, no matter how good it is. The biggest Malaysian movie of the year, “Vikingdom”, is in English and thus not eligible. My prediction: “Kil” or nothing.

 

16. MONGOLIA- "Queen Anu" Mongolia recently held its third annual Film Awards on May 16. Though they don’t award a “Best Picture” award, historical drama “Aravt: The Ten Soldiers of Genghis Khan” won the most awards. The film, which was screened in the UK, was released too early in Ulaanbaatar to rep Mongolia at this year’s Oscars, which is a shame. The other two Mongolian films that split most of the major awards are eligible (“Queen Anu” and Korean co-production “Soar Up”) and the trailers for both films are really gorgeous…they look like something from China or Japan rather than from a developing country. If they want to go quirky, they could also send the most popular Mongolian film on the international circuit this year, namely “Mongolian Bling”, about the country’s up-and-coming hip-hop music industry. Less likely: “Scent of Water”, about a stranded Westerner rescued by some adorable children. Mongolia rarely enters the race but there’s a slight chance they’ll send box-office hit 17^th-century costume drama “Queen Anu”. Check out the trailer here. Looks pretty cool....

17. NEPAL- "Uma" Nepal hasn’t sent a movie since 2006 and they reportedly don’t have an official Oscar selection committee due to internal bureaucratic squabbles. That’s a shame because they had a wonderful movie to send last year (“Highway”) which was one of my favorite movies from last year’s DC International Film Festival. If the Nepalis can get their act together, I think they’ll send “Uma”, a thriller-cum-family-drama about a family torn apart by the Maoist insurgency and civil war in the 1990s, with different family members taking opposing sides. Director Tsering Rhitar Sherpa repped Nepal in the 2000 Oscar race, so he may know how to get the authorities to fill out the paperwork. Two of the Best Picture nominees from Nepal’s 2013 Film Awards are eligible- “Ke Ma Timro Sathi Banna Sakchhu” and “Rhythm”- but these both look like ordinary Bollywood musicals. “Rhythm” screened in Australia, so I suppose it has a better shot than “Ke Ma”. Prediction: “Uma”.

 18. NEW ZEALAND- "White Lies" New Zealand sent a Samoan-language film as their first-ever Oscar entry in 2011 and they are almost certain to enter for the second time with “White Lies”, one of the first-ever feature films filmed primarily in the indigenous Maori language of New Zealand (80%). The film, made by the producer of the Oscar-nominated “Whale Rider” is a beautiful period drama about a Maori medicine woman whose traditional medicine is banned by the white authorities, and what happens when she is asked to use her skills to help hide the secret of an upper-class white woman. Count on it to rep New Zealand on the Oscar longlist, unless the Kiwis object to the director being of Mexican nationality (she lives in Auckland). I'm pretty confident they'll send it in.  

 

19. PAKISTAN- "Ishq Khuda". Pakistan last submitted a film a few weeks before President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in 1963. The beleaguered “Lollywood” film industry has been hurt by domestic  security concerns, a lack of quality filmmaking as well as competition from Bollywood (a few Indian releases are allowed in Pakistani cinemas each year, and the rest are available via pirated DVDs), not to mention Hollywood. Last year was a particular bad year for Pakistani releases, although Pakistan is planning a big blitz of domestic releases in July for the Eid holiday. If they choose to return after a 50-year absence, they are most likely to enter the much-hyped Punjabi-language “romantic, spiritual” musical “Ishq Khuda”, which premiered at the Toronto Punjabi Film Festival in May and has some Indian input. It should beat out the competition from political drama “Chambaili: Fragrance of Freedom”. 

 

20. THE PHILIPPINES- "On the Job" The Philippines probably came their closest ever to an Oscar nomination last year, though Toronto fave “Bwakaw” did not end up making the cut. The Pinoys have quite a lot of festival films to choose from this year (they had three films at Cannes) though I’m not sure many of these gritty, low-budget and often divisive efforts have the gravitas to make it to the Final Nine. Confusing things further is that it’s hard to find the release dates for Filipino independent films (which is what they’ve sent five of the past six years) and the fact that they Pinoys tend to release many of their contenders in late summer so as I write this entry (in late June) it’s possible there are films that will come out of nowhere (like last year’s “Bwakaw”). Here are my Top Five predictions: (1)- “Breakaway” (Pusan) is a thriller-drama about the abduction of a child, (2)- “El Presidente” is not an independent film but it an expensive historical one about the Philippines’ first President….it swept most of the Philippines’ countless end-of-year Film Awards (the FAP Awards, the FAMAS Awards, the Star Awards and finished in 2^nd place in the Metro Manila Film Festival) and was praised by the government, (3)-Gil Portes’ “The Liars”, about a baseball team for impoverished youth, (4)-“On the Job” (Cannes) is a gritty crime thriller about two hit men (including a juvenile) that played in Cannes Director’s Fortnight and (5)- Brillante Mendoza’s “Thy Womb” (Berlin) has played at more than a dozen festivals including Venice and Toronto for its story of an infertile woman trying to find a surrogate for she and her husband to have a child. But there are plenty of other possibilities, including “Apparition”, about cloistered nuns living under the Marcos regime, “Dance of the Steel Bars”, a based-on-a-true-story prison dance drama, “Love and Death”, a 16^th century historical drama about Spanish colonization, or any of prolific Adolfo Alix Jr.’s four new films this year (“Mater Dolorosa, “Death March”, “Wildlife” or “Porno”…Alix repped the Philippines in 2007). My prediction:  the Philippine Academy has never cared much for Brillante Mendoza films, so I’m debating between “Breakaway” and “On the Job”….Let’s say “On the Job” for now. The winners at Cinemalaya 2013 may offer more of a clue. For more on Philippines advances into global independent cinema see here.

 

21. SINGAPORE- "Ilo Ilo" Singapore‘s local films have done great at the box-office this past year, with “Ah Boys to Men” (released in November) and “Ah Boys to Men 2” (released in January) beating all box-office records for local films in Singapore history. These two English-language comedies about army life won’t compete for an Oscar, but they do show the popularity of local stories in multi-lingual Singapore. This year, Singapore also won its first feature-film award at Cannes for “Ilo Ilo” (Camera d’Or for Best First Feature), a film about the relationship between a Filipina nanny, her 10-year old Chinese-Singaporean charge, and the boy’s jealous mother, envious of their warming relationship, all set against the background of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. 23-year old director Anthony Chen is a shoo-in to represent Singapore….if the movie qualifies. That's a big if....Like the streets of Singapore, “Ilo Ilo” is in a combination of English and Chinese and is not certain to hit the 50% mark to qualify as a Foreign Language Film. It also has no local release date yet. If “Ilo Ilo” doesn’t qualify, Singapore will likely go with “That Girl in Pinafore (A Singapore Love Story)”, a charming musical teen romance focused on the local Chinese folk music industry in 1992. I believe three other films are eligible- local comedy “Taxi Taxi!”, local horror film “Ghost Child” and violent sexual thriller “Hotel de Sade”- but they won’t figure in the equation. For now, I’m predicting “Ilo Ilo”.

22. SRI LANKA- "Sri Siddhartha Gautama" Sri Lanka's most likely submission this year is clearly Chandran Rutnam’s lavish biography of Lord Buddha, “Sri Siddartha Gautama”, an expensive biopic of the founder of Buddhism. Although reviews have been mixed, the Sri Lankans generally seem proud of the film, and Rutnam was the director of Sri Lanka’s most recent submission in 2009. “Thanha Rathi Ranga”, about the journey of three friends to a region devastated by the recently ended civil war, has gotten somewhat better reviews, but doesn’t have the scale or hype of Buddha’s life story. The arthouse “August Drizzle”, about a female mortician, has gotten film festival play (the others have not), but reviews have been poor since it finally opened domestically in Spring 2013. Prediction: “Siddharta”

23. TAIWAN- "Ripples of Desire" Taiwan has a pretty modest record at the Oscars once you subtract three-time Oscar winner Ang Lee from the equation. The two most hotly anticipated Taiwanese films- Hou Hsien-hou’s martial arts epic “The Assassin” and Wei Te-sheng’s expensive baseball drama “Kano” won’t be released until next year’s race (when Taiwan will have a hard decision!) so there aren’t many strong possibilities. Taiwan is really unclear this year as they have a half-dozen middle-of-the-road titles with no standouts.  My prediction is expensive period drama “Ripples of Desire” just because it’s “big” (their surprise shortlist spot in 2012 was for a big-budget period film) and I can’t figure out which of their other quiet dramas and dramedies they’d otherwise choose. Directed by Zero Chou, famous for her lesbian-themed films, “Ripples of Desire” is about two twin sisters living amidst 17^th century pirates, leprosy and political intrigue. In second place, I’ll guess drama “Together” about a 17-year old boy from a dysfunctional family and his efforts to  fix the problems around him. In third: “Forever Love”, a nostalgic romantic comedy set primarily in the 1960s about a boy visiting his 70-year grandfather who used to work in the Taiwan film industry. Finishing out the Top Five: “Soul”, a thriller (set to open the Taipei Film Festival) about a man who may be a victim of demonic possession, and “To My Dear Granny”, an auto-biographical film about a boy’s relationship with his grandmother. Less likely but still possible in a weak year: youth drama “Triangle Land”, baseball flick “Faithland”, omnibus film “Taipei Factory”, comedy “Will You Still Love Me?” (Tribeca) and kung-fu musical “The Rooftop”.

24. TAJIKISTAN- "Waiting for the Sea" Tajikistan's impoverished film industry hasn’t sent a film to the Oscars since 2005’s delightfully quirky “Sex & Philosophy”. This year, the Tajiks have been represented at several film festivals by “Telegram”, a drama about an actor who returns to his village for his mother’s funeral. At Tajikistan’s local Didor Film Festival, there was also one other Tajik feature- “The Wheel”.  However, I’m going to predict a possible Tajik return with “Waiting for the Sea”, a surreal drama by Bakhtiar Khodoijnazarov who directed Tajikistan’s initial Oscar submission “Luna Papa” in 1999. “Waiting for the Sea” is about a fishing village that is relocated to the desert by a freak storm, and although Tajik input was minimal (The director is Tajik, but the film was co-produced by production companies from six other countries), Khodoijnazarov is arguably the country’s most prominent director so they may try sending it in. For an interesting interview on the current state of Tajikistan’s beleaguered film industry (with “Telegram”’s director), see here.

25. THAILAND- "King Naresuan Part 5" The Kingdom of Thailand has had the biggest-ever box-office hit in their national history (horror-comedy-fairytale “Pee Mak”, which has actually gotten surprisingly positive reviews) but they have been pretty weak when it comes to films that could potentially compete for an Oscar. The Thai Academy typically likes to choose films that positively showcase Thai culture. This year the national censors have been pretty uppity meaning that two long-awaited contenders have been banned (“Fatherland” about the Muslim-Buddhist conflict in Southern Thailand starring Ananda Everingham and “Shakespeare Must Die”, a drama about political intrigues amidst the Thai government, unofficially based on exiled PM Thaksin). Others that feature controversial subjects likely won’t be picked either (political history documentary “Paradoxocracy” by four-time Oscar director Pen-ek Ratanaruang, and indie darling “Karaoke Girl”, about prostitution). The biggest film of the year- the fifth and concluding chapter in the big-budget historical epic "King Naresuan" series-has no release date, while the biggest box-office hit is a horror-comedy about ghosts. Every contender seems somewhat unlikely: “Grean Fictions” is by a previously submitted director but it’s a lighthearted teen comedy; two eligible Best Picture nominees from this year’s Thai Oscars (the Suphannahongsa Awards) seem unlikely- “Yak: The Giant King”, a computer animated film, and “Countdown”, a NYC-set horror film whose trailer features a Jesus Christ figure/pot dealer breaking a Thai girl's finger- both seem limited by their genre. “Koo Kam” sounds perfect- it’s a WWII romance set during the Japanese occupation about a love triangle between a Thai man and woman, and an influential Japanese captain- but reviews were positively poisonous. So, with so many contenders disqualifying themselves, the Thai may have to look beyond the obvious choices- “Tamruad Peun Hode” (literally translated "Tough Gun Cops") is a social drama by the son of Thailand’s most acclaimed director, though there’s little info about it on line, “Tang Wong” is a youth-themed comedy that was warmly received in Berlin’s youth section, and “Together” was an also-ran at the Thai Oscars, but stars the daughter of His Majesty the King of Thailand. My prediction: “Naresuan 5” gets the Thai nod if they release it before September 30 (the Thai are reportedly choosing an auspicious date and may wait until the King's birthday in December), with the Top Four runner-ups in the following order: “Tamruad Peun Hode”, “Together”, “Koo Kam” and “Tang Wong”.

26. VIETNAM- "Losing Way" Vietnam has one of the most difficult races to predict this year. Communist Vietnam prefers to send conservative, patriotic and/or historical films that showcase Vietnam’s rich history and especially their valiant efforts to fight off foreign aggressors, whether that be during medieval times (2011), the French Colonial era (2005 and 2007) or the Vietnam War (2009 and 2012). They had an excellent candidate last year- the privately funded, action-packed hit historical drama “Blood Letter”, winner of this year’s Golden Kite Award for Best Picture- but they selected a poorly received jingoistic Vietnam War film from the National Film Studio instead. This year, film violence and government censorship has become a major issue ever since a hotly awaited film by one of the country’s most popular directors (Vietnam-born, US-raised Charlie Nguyen and his “Gangs of Chinatown”) was banned by the censors for excessive violence. The two biggest films from the National Film Studio this year- “Hot Sand” (Cat Nong) and “Passion” (Dam Me) represented Vietnam at the Hanoi International Film Festival, but they were both panned by critics and won nothing at the Golden Kite Awards despite their official seal of approval. Two other Vietnamese films have seen a fair bit of international play but both of them are privately funded and deal with controversial issues that may make the Vietnamese authorities squeaming about selecting them. “In the Name of Love” played in Toronto and is made by a previously-submitted director, but this story of a woman who secretly has an extramarital affair to have a child with her infertile husband is said to start off well but descend into maudlin melodrama. “Scandal” has gotten better reviews (it won the Critics Award at the Golden Kites over “Blood Letter”, which won nearly everything else) but it focuses on the scandals and backstage dramas of Vietnam’s film industry and media- once again, not something the Vietnamese seem comfortable with. Nor are the two Vietnamese films from the Cannes Film Market very promising- “Once Upon A Time in Vietnam” (the directorial debut of 21 Jump Street alum Dustin Nguyen) and “Race Tracks” (which was also banned for violence before making extensive cuts) are unlikely to be chosen since they are really just action films, while slick thriller “Cold Summer” which may also be seen as too “genre”. One final contender- “Losing Way” (a.k.a. “Lost” or Lac Loi) was produced by a national film studio and did well at the Golden Kites (finishing second place) but it hasn’t been released yet. A premiere is scheduled for September, just before the Oscar cut-off date but Vietnamese films often have trouble meeting the screening criteria so that’s cutting it close. This is one race I’m really curious about. However, I'm predicting the Vietnamese send this family drama ("Losing Way") about the life of a woman from a rural area (and directed by a rare female director), with “Scandal” in second. Or they may choose to avoid controversy entirely and not submit anything at all.  

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

The most likely debut from Asia is "A Guerra da Beatriz" the first-ever feature film from tiny, impoverished TIMOR-LESTE. "Beatriz" is a retelling of Martin Guerre about a woman's loyalty to her lover during the Indonesian occupation that killed one-third of the tiny enclave's population. Also making their first-ever film is the tiny oil-rich Islamic kingdom of BRUNEI, which produced romantic comedy "Ada Apa Dengan Rina". While it's not an Oscary sort of film, one of the advantages of being a small country is that they can send it in anyway. The MARSHALL ISLANDS (pop: 70,000) have also just produced their first-feature film, "The Sound of Crickets at Night", but unfortunately it was released right before the deadline leaving them out of the race.

Other unlikely possibities: BURMA is opening up to the world and could send human trafficking drama "Kayan Beauty", while NORTH KOREA is closing itself up to the world even more but still found time to make a co-production with their Southern neighbors- "The Other Side of the Mountain" is about the forbidden love between a North Korean nurse and a South Korean soldier during wartime. LAOS' "Red Scarf" got both a domestic release and a release in neighboring Thailand for its eerie ghost story set in the country's rural heartland.

Foreign Film Oscar Prediction 2012-2013, ISRAEL to PHILIPPINES

And here's Group 3....including multiple nominees Israel, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Mexico, the Netherlands and Norway

53. ISRAEL usually (but not always) selects a film from the Jerusalem Film Festival and it always chooses the winner of the Best Picture award at the Ophir Awards, which will be announced in September (as long as the winning film is not in English). This year’s front-runner is “God’s Neighbours”, a drama about a gang of religious Jews and the dangers of religious extremism. It played at Cannes Critics Week in May. Most of the Israeli contenders this year are by new or untested directors, with the exception of Dover Kosashvili (who repped Israel way back in 2001) who has “Thirty Plus”, a comedy about a single woman in her 30s matching wits with her manipulative mother, who refuses to have an operation until she gets a grandchild. Also very possible- “Fill the Void”, about an Orthodox Jewish girl presented with a terrible moral dilemma between love and family obligation. The other two Ophir Best Picture nominees will probably be filled by “Rock the Casbah”, about an Israeli soldier in the Occupied Territories, circa 1989, and “Epilogue”, about an idealistic elderly couple who decide to commit suicide together. Most of these films have not premiered anywhere yet except Jerusalem, so you might also see “Yossi”, a gay-themed sequel to “Yossi & Jagger” in the mix (though Eytan Fox has never done well at the Ophirs), "Sharqiyah", a film about a Bedouin trying to stop the destruction of his village (and the surprise winner in Jerusalem) or even “The Ballad of the Weeping Spring”, a drama about a man trying to reunite a band to play for his dying father. Anyway, my prediction for the Ophirs/Oscars: the Israeli Academy can be unpredictable but “God’s Neighbours” looks like the frontrunner for now.

54. ITALY- may have more Oscars than any other country (13) but five of those wins came from the 1950s. Since their win in 1999 for the delightful “Life is Beautiful”, they’ve managed merely one lonely nomination (an inexplicable nod for the undeserving “Don’t Tell”) plus a shortlist spot for Giuseppe Tornatore’s underrated “La Sconosciuta”. Italy is still making good movies, but doesn’t usually send them. Instead, they send solid but forgettable dramas. Perhaps they should choose one of their breezy comedies (“Bread and Tulips”, “Loose Cannons”) instead. This year, Italy has a few prominent films, but none that I think will net them an Oscar nomination this year. From three previously submitted directors, come Berlin/Donatello winner “Caesar Must Die”, political conspiracy thriller “Piazza Fontana” and Cannes Grand Prix-winning reality-television satire “Reality” (Cannes), in the Neapolitan dialect. “Caesar Must Die”, a docudrama featuring real prisoners in a staging of Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar, has won the arty Berlin Film Festival and swept the major awards at the mainstream national Donatello Awards. “Piazza Fontana” is about a series of real-life terrorist incidents in 1969. Reviews have been the best of the three films, but it’s said to be extremely confusing for those without a knowledge of Italian history and politics. “Reality” is by the director of “Gomorrah” (which the Academy did not like, nor did I) and concerns a poor fisherman who becomes a reality TV contestant. The other films that I think will be on Italy’s shortlist include breezy comedy “Magnifica Presenza” (choose it!) by Ferzan Ozpetek who is always on the Italian shortlist, “Diaz: Don’t Clean Up the Blood”, about the 2001 G8 riots in Genoa and “The Entrepreneur”, a drama about a factory owner trying to avoid financial ruin. My predictions: Italy chooses “Caesar Must Die”. Runner-ups: “Piazza Fontana”, “Diaz: Don’t Clean Up the Blood”, “Reality” and “Magnificent Presence”, in that order.

55. JAPAN is one of the most difficult countries to predict and I have never gotten them right yet. This year, I think it will be a battle between two new releases (August 2012) by previously submitted directors. 77-year old director Yasuo Furuhata and 81-year old semi-retired film star Ken Takakura have re-teamed together on the all-star “Anata e” (also known as “Dear” or “To You”), 13 years after the (well-meaning but dull) “Poppoya” swept the Japanese Academy Awards and represented Japan at the Oscars in 1999/2000. “Anata e” is a drama about an elderly man on a journey across Japan to spread his wife’s ashes. On the journey, he learns more than he expected about her life. Many A-list Japanese actors make cameos along the way. Then there’s Yojiro Takita, who deservedly won the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar for “Departures”- the first win for Japan in more than fifty years. Takita's latest film is “Insight Into the Universe”, a stylish, period drama set in the 17th century, about an astronomer developing revolutionary methods to improve the Japanese calendar. Though the subject sounds quite boring, the trailer looks downright exciting. Which one will Japan choose? I think “Insight” sounds more likely, but I’m going to predict the age and experience of “Anata e”. Since Japan often does make an unpredictable choice, there are four other films that should be considered a threat: “Genji Monogatari”, starring Miki Nakatani (“Confessions”) is a gorgeous period piece based on the famed 11th century Japanese novel, but the film has barely made a blip in cinematic circles. “Letter to Momo” is an acclaimed animated film about a young girl dealing with the death of her father, though Japan has been reluctant to choose anime since two losses in the 1990s. “Hara Kiri: Death of a Samurai” (Cannes 2011) and “Himizu” (Venice 2011) have both been widely seen internationally, but their very famous directors Takashi Miike and Shion Sono are both better known for low-budget horror and cult films than mainstream international successes. “Hara Kiri” is the story of a samurai living during the downfall of their powerful warrior class, while “Himizu” is about two teens in post-tsunami Japan who decide to take revenge on those they consider to be bad people. Third tier: Japan occasionally goes with comedy and if so, they should choose screwball comedy “Once in a Blue Moon” (by the delightful Koki Mitani), while two dramas starring Koji Yakusho- “Chronicles of My Mother” (a tribute to Ozu) and “Hayabusa: The Long Voyage Home” (a true story about Japanese space exploration from the point of view of those on the ground) are unlikely but possible. My prediction: “Anata e”, followed by “Insight Into the Universe”, and “Hara Kiri”.

56. JORDAN (last submitted 2008) may well return to the competition with “The Last Friday” a wry comedy-drama about a middle-class man who has gambled his savings away, his relationship with his estranged family, and his spiritual awakening when he discovers he needs an operation he cannot afford. The film won awards at Dubai and played in Berlin. The other contender would be “Seven Hour Difference”, a romance which has gotten less visibility. No feature film had been made in the decades before 2008, so it’s great that Jordan is producing a couple of films a year nowadays.

57. KAZAKHSTAN has one of the easiest decisions this year. “Myn Bala: Warriors of the Steppe” (a.k.a. A Thousand Boys) is a long-awaited, expensive, nationalist period epic that has also gotten good reviews. It checks every box! The story is about an 18th century army of teens who lead a Kazakh army to defeat the oppressive Dzhungars. Kazakhstan has sent period epics in the past, the director has been selected before (for “Strayed”) and the film is near-certain to represent Kazakhstan. Runner-up: “Student”, a Kazakh version of Dostoevsky’s Crime & Punishment.

58. KOREA usually chooses a shortlist of about six films. This year, I expect they’ll choose seven, which will be: “In Another Country” (Cannes), a comic romance co-starring Isabelle Huppert in three separate stories about a French woman in Korea, “Masquerade”, a Korean version of The Prince and the Pauper set in 17th century Korea, “My Way”(directed by Kang Je-kyu, "Taegukgi") , a patriotic drama about Koreans fighting against Japanese occupation, “Nameless Gangster”, an action-thriller that focuses on gangs and political corruption in the 1980s and 1990s, “Punch” a sleeper hit teen drama which examines multi-cultural issues and wowed local critics, “Taste of Money” (Cannes), a soap opera about intrigue amongst a family of millionaires, and “The Thieves”, an all-star commercial heist film referred to as a Korean "Ocean’s Eleven”. It’s entirely possible one of those could be displaced by auteur filmmaker Kim Ki-duk’s latest film “Amen”. Kim has represented Korea before, but his latest is supposed to be uninspiring. Other dark horse possibilities for the shortlist include “As One”, a drama about table tennis, “The Concubine” and “Russian Coffee”, a pair of pretty costume dramas, “Architecture 101” and “Dancing Queen”, a pair of popular romantic comedies, “The Great Heist”, a mainstream action-comedy about ice smuggling in medieval Korea and “Unbowed”, based on the true story of a man whose grievances lead him to attack a judge with a crossbow. There is no clear frontrunners as many of the leading contenders on paper (i.e. “My Way”) have gotten middling reviews from international critics while sleepers like “Punch” have done much better. At least one (“In Another Country”) may contain too much English to qualify. My predictions: the Koreans go with “Masquerade” with runner-ups “Nameless Gangster”, “My Way” and “In Another Country” in that order.

59. KUWAIT (last submitted 1978) is the only Gulf Arab country ever to enter the race, which they did twice in 1972 and 1978. If it weren’t for some release date confusion, I would bet money that they would enter the competition this year for the first time in more than three decades. “Tora Bora”, a drama about a man and his wife who search for their missing son in the mountains of Afghanistan, appears to have premiered in Kuwait a few weeks before last year’s cutoff date, even though it opened the Gulf Film Festival in 2012, where it won awards. After Iran’s win last year, I’m hoping the Gulfies will be inspired to send in their own entries.

60. KYRGYZSTAN (last submitted 2010) has produced seven films this year according to the new and improved Kyrgyz cinema website. The frontrunner for the Oscars is clearly “Empty Home” by previously submitted director Nurbek Egen (“Wedding Chest”), a dark drama about a 19-year Kyrgyz village girl/runaway bride who runs off to Moscow to seek a better life. It played in Seattle. Also possible: the soon-to-be-released “Princess Nazik”, which received a grant at Locarno 2010 and which is scheduled to premiere in August.

61. LATVIA skipped last year, although they had a good WWII story to send (“Threesome Dance”). They’ve got a number of eligible films this year, so here’s hoping that they return. My prediction is that they send “”, which won Best Picture at the Latvian Film Festival, celebrating films from the past two years. The film tells three stories based on three different novels, loosely based on the story of Lilith, the woman God created before Eve. The film is in Russian- not necessarily the favorite language in the Baltics- but Latvia is the most comfortably bilingual of the three republics and the film did receive some Latvian government funding, so I think it should be okay. If they want a more culturally ‘Latvian’ film, they’ll choose between slacker comedy “Kolka Cool”, and teen crime drama “People Out There” (Karlovy Vary) about a young Latvian who goes to extraordinary means to get the money necessary to impress a rich girl. I think the popular “Kolka” has the edge. Unlikely: village girl drama “Mona” was seven years in the making, but it was shut out of most of the Latvian film nominations (ironically so was Latvia’s 2009 submission “Amaya”).

62. LEBANON has sent more films to the Oscars than any Arab country other than North African heavyweights Algeria and Egypt, but despite a pair of charming comedies from Nadine Labaki and the underrated drama of “West Beyrouth”, Lebanon has so far failed to make the final round. As far as I know, they have a quartet of films they could send this year: an anti-Israeli hit action film co-produced with Iran (“33 Days”), a sultry romantic drama about a woman in red seducing a seminary student (“Heels of War”), a thriller about a man who runs into the woman who convinced him to commit a murder decades before (“A Man of Honor”) and a quirky comedy about a taxi driver (“Taxi Ballad”). A fifth contender, romantic drama “Beirut Hotel”, has so far been banned from screening in Lebanon due to political and sexual sensitivities. So, which film will the Lebanese send to the Oscars? Lebanon doesn’t send a film unless they feel it’s a real contender, but if they do I’m guessing they go with the quirky “Heels of War” (aka “Tannoura Maxi”), the eccentric love story allegedly based on how director Joe Bou Eid’s parents met. Runner-up: “A Man of Honor”. They’d only choose “33 Days” to make a political point, and not sure that the Lebanese Academy is interested in doing this.

63. LITHUANIA was one of four Eastern European countries I visited this year, and I found it interesting to note how local people reacted when I asked about how I could find local cinema to watch. In tiny Estonia, two stores proudly showed me the way to a prominently displayed section of Estonian DVDs, almost all of with had English subtitles. In Latvia, shopkeepers would usually scratch their head and say “Yes, I think we have one or two Latvian films in the store, but I’m not sure”. In Lithuania, they looked at me with blank looks, like I was crazy for asking. One person said “No. Our country has only ever had one successful film in our entire history”. At the Lithuanian Film Museum in Vilnius, they clearly appreciated my interest and said apologetically that they didn’t know why local films were not available on DVD. I suppose this partly explains why they were late among the ex-Soviet Republics to join the competition (11th out of 12, although three republics- Moldova, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan- don’t compete). Having said all that, the Lithuanians have been a semi-regular participant since 2006 and they’ve had a good year. The two frontrunners represent style vs. substance. “Fireheart: Tadas Blinda” is the “only successful Lithuanian film” mentioned to me in Vilnius. It has a big budget (by local standards) and was a major domestic hit in a country where clearly not many people watch local movies. The film, about a romance between a low-born peasant and a noblewoman, is set against the background of a 19th century peasant revolt. It actually got mixed reviews but it’s as big as Lithuanian movies get! “Citadel of Sleeping Butterflies” was the big winner at this year’s Lithuanian Oscars (the Silver Cranes), beating “Tadas Blinda” for Best Picture and Best Director. That film is about a middle-aged woman who finds meaning in her life when she develops a friendship with a group of prostitutes. Lithuania once chose a documentary, making me think that they could also consider “Barzakh”, a well-regarded feature about Chechen families and their life after the civil war with Russia. Out of their league: “Vanishing Waves” (Karlovy Vary) and “Narcissus” (Silver Crane nominee). My prediction: “Tadas Blinda”.

64. LUXEMBOURG has missed the past two years (last year they had no eligible films...most were minority co-productions or were in English...) but they have two eligible films this year. The more likely of the two is “Butterfly Symmetry”, a surreal comedy described as a “story-within-a-story”. In it, a misogynistic chess champion is humiliated by a young female prodigy whom he eventually begins falling in love with. Making the plot more complicated, all of this is being imagined by an aging writer in a retirement home. Sounds very complicated. Less likely is children’s adventure film “Schatzritter” whose poster looks suspiciously like a Harry Potter film. A highly anticipated crime drama, “Dead Angle” won’t premiere until three days after the deadline.

65. MACEDONIA’s cinema rarely features big international stars but this year they have Victoria Abril in “The Woman Who Brushed Off Her Tears” (Berlin), which is also known as “Man on Asphalt”. It’s a whimsical drama about the parallel lives of a Parisian woman (Abril) and a Macedonian village woman (director Mitevska’s sister). Although reviews haven’t been kind, it should be able to beat the other Macedonian film released this year, dark horse “Skopje Remixed”, a diverse omnibus film featuring nine shorts about life and love in the Macedonian capital. There is a chance that one or both of the two other hotly anticipated and recently completed Macedonian films will be released in Macedonian cinemas before the September 30 deadline. Both will have their world premieres in Macedonia’s Bitola Film Festival in September. The controversial “The Third Half”, the supposedly true story of a Jewish football coach in Nazi-occupied Macedonia, will be fierce competition. “Half” has infuriated neighboring Bulgaria, some of whom have urged a condemnation of the film, which alleges Bulgaria collaborated with the Nazis to deport and murder Macedonian Jews (Bulgaria was an ally of Nazi Germany, but has long claimed it was the only one not to deport Jews). “Balkan Is Not Dead”, which takes place in 1905, is a period piece about the romance between Turkey’s General Ataturk and a Macedonian girl. Ironically, the directors of “Third Half” and “Balkan Is Not Dead” co-directed Macedonia’s bizarre 1998 submission “Goodbye 20th Century” (which featured a murderous Santa Claus). If all four films are eligible, I predict “Balkan Is Not Dead” will beat the other three. However, since I think “Balkan” will be eligible next year, I’m predicting “The Woman Who Brushed Off Her Tears”.

66. MALAYSIA (last submitted 2004) sent a film to the competition only once, despite having one of the highest film outputs in Southeast Asia. Last year, the film I predicted would coax them back into the race (“The Malay Chronicles”) won Best Picture at the National Film Awards, but was not sent to the Oscars. This year, they don’t have any outstanding films this year that would make me believe they would re-enter. Two of the better regarded candidates include “Songlap”, a drama about forced prostitution and human trafficking and “Ombak Rindu”, a romantic tearjerker. They also have some high-profile commercial films including action-thrillers “Bunohan” and “The Collector”, Malaysia’s first 3D film “The 29th of February” and Malaysia’s first sci-fi film “Manetra”. For the sake of completion, I’ll guess they send “The 29th of February”, about a man who ages only once every four years, and “Songlap” as the runner-up.

67. MEXICO has gotten four Oscar nominations in the past twelve years plus one additional shortlist spot. Mexico typically releases a lengthy “shortlist” of films in late August (usually around 10-12). Things are very confusing in Mexico this year. Just to remind, films are only eligible if they premiered in Mexican cinemas between October 2011 and September 2012. The two top Mexican films on the film festival circuit this year- Cannes 2012 Un Certain Regard winner “After Lucia” and Cannes 2012 Best Director winner “Post Tenebras Lux”- are both scheduled to open in local cinemas in October 2012. Gritty crime thriller “Days of Grace” was released in April 2012 to excellent reviews (though it is said to be a bit uneven), and it won five awards at the Mexican Ariel Awards....but Mexico somehow shortlisted it last year when it lost to “Miss Bala”. Was it eligible last year?? Who knows? And “La Vida Precoz y Breve de Sabina Rivas”, by the director of “Innocent Voices”, has been completed but still has no release date...I think Mexico will select “Pastorela”, a lively and popular comedy that won Best Picture at this year’s Ariels, against tough competition from “Days of Grace”. “Pastorela” takes a comical look at the rivalry between a church pastor and a local cop going to war over who gets to play the part of the Devil in the annual Christmas pageant. It sounds really funny. As for the other contenders, “Days of Grace” is said to be exciting but messy and chaotic. “After Lucia”, a drama about a the effects of bullying on a young, popular girl, is supposed to be great, but it's a much “smaller” and quieter film than Mexico typically chooses. The arty “Post Tenebras Lux” is just supposed to be terrible! So, even without all these release date problems, I was predicting “Pastorela” anyway. Other films we can expect to see on the Mexican shortlist include: “Between Us”, a black comedy about the disintegration of a marriage, “Los Chidos”, another black comedy, this time about a gringo American who wanders into the life of a low-class Mexican family, “Colosino: El Asesinato”, a political thriller about a fictional assassination in the 1990s, “Lu’s Dream”, a drama about a woman recovering from the death of her young son, “Reasons of the Heart”, an adaptation of Madame Bovary by Arturo Ripstein (who has repped Mexico a record five times) and “A Secret World” about the road journey of a sexually adventurous teen. I think the runner-ups will be “After Lucia” (if it gets an early release) and "Colosino", since Mexico usually leans towards more commercially popular films.

68. MONGOLIA (last submitted 2005) is the latest country to introduce annual National Film Awards and this year’s three big winners were thriller “Mind Stealer” (Best Film, Actor, Screenplay and three others), emigration drama “The Men with Blue Dots” (Best Director and one other) and historical costume drama “Bogd Khan” (two small awards). The trailers for all three look much more professional than you might expect, which may lead to a Mongolian film in the Oscar competition for the first time since 2005. Despite “Bogd Khan”’s weaker showing at the National Film Awards, it was screened for foreign investors in Cannes and is the most likely candidate, followed by “Blue Dots”, which has European partners.

69. MOROCCO made the shortlist for the first time last year and, in all likelihood, pipped Germany’s “Pina” for sixth place, just missing a potential Cinderella-story Oscar nomination...Unfortunately, coming in sixth place means little at the Oscars but Morocco’s film industry is churning out lots of films lately, with more potential contenders (by my count) than any other Arab country, including Egypt. Despite a plethora of well-received films, Morocco’s Oscar entry will almost certainly be one of two films. My pick is “God’s Horses” directed by Nabil Ayouch (who repped Morocco in 1998 and 2000), which was the only Arab film to play in the Un Certain Regard competition at Cannes this year. “Horses” tells the story of disaffected youth in Morocco who are recruited and convinced to take part in terrorist activities. “Horses” faces strong competition from “Death for Sale” (Berln 2012), which also features disaffected youth, but this time involved in a jewelry heist. In third place: “The Prodigal Son”, in which a son kidnapped by his French mother as a child returns to live with his father in Morocco. In any other year, films like “On the Edge” (four female blue-collar workers are seduced by a life of crime), “Rough Hands” (a well-connected barber helps a woman to engage in visa fraud to reunite with her husband), “Love in the Medina” (a racy box-office hit about a preacher’s son entering into a forbidden sexual relationship) and “The Rif Lover” (opening film in Marrakech; about a lusty young woman who falls for a drug lord) would easily qualify as contenders, but they’ll find it difficult to be noticed this year. Wild card: majority French production “Free Men” starring Tahar Rahim is an acclaimed French film with a Moroccan-born director, based on a true story about Arabs saving Jews during WWII. Last year, Morocco selected a similarly produced film to make the shortlist.

70. NEPAL (last submitted 2006) submitted films somewhat regularly between 1999 and 2006, but then they gave up. This year, they do actually have an Oscar contender that may coax them to return, and that film is “Highway”. “Highway” is one of the first Nepali films on the international film circuit. It played in the Berlin Panorama 2012, it has powerful backers (including Danny Glover), and it was the first Nepali film to merit a Variety review in five years (since their last Oscar submission!). “Highway” is a low-budget film about a number of strangers on a long bus journey, who are delayed when a strike prevents any traffic from moving forward. This is a relevant and topical problem in Nepal and while the film isn’t likely to do well in the Oscar race, sending the film to Hollywood would be a great move to boost the domestic film industry. The film has sparked a vigorous critical debate in Nepal, in newspapers and on the web, with some loving the film and others hating it, with very few people in-between. This year’s winner of the Nepali Film Awards- “Bato Muni Ko Phool”- is not eligible because it was released too early.

71. THE NETHERLANDS has sent three films about World War II to the Oscars in the past nine years (four if you include “Sonny Boy”, in which WWII also plays a role). They’ve also been shortlisted three times....Guess which films? “Winter in Wartime”, “Black Book” and Oscar nominee “Twin Sisters” were all films with WWII at their core. Like Pavlov’s Dog, the Netherlands is almost certain to choose “Süskind “ a true drama about a Dutch Jew who saves the lives of countless Jewish children during the German occupation. Now if that’s not Oscar bait, I don’t know what is! The large committee will give it a “10” on their rating cards before they’ve even started the film. The Netherlands doesn’t have too many other strong contenders this year, although I suppose we will see films like thriller “The Heineken Kidnapping” (the true story of a millionaire held for ransom, starring Rutger Hauer), road movie “Jackie” (two twin sisters search for their long-lost mother in the USA, starring Carice van Houten and Holly Hunter). youth drama “Kauwboy” (Best Youth Film, Berlin 2012) and thriller “Manslaughter”(about an ambulance driver and an accidental death) on the Dutch longlist. Of these, “Heineiken” has the best chance of beating “Süskind”...but don’t count on it. Much-maligned 3D adventure drama “Nova Zembla”, and small, critically praised films like “Hemel” and “Snackbar” will be lucky if they make the longlist.

72. NEW ZEALAND sent a film for the first time last year, but despite two official languages (English and Maori), almost all of their films are in English. They do have a documentary called “Maori Boy Genius”, about a Maori teen accepted to Yale at age 16. It appears it's mostly in English but it does feature quite a bit of Maori...It would be interesting if they released a Maori-language version to qualify for the Oscars.

73. NICARAGUA (last submitted 2010) returned to the competition after a two-decade absence in 2010. Unfortunately, I don’t see that they have any eligible films this year.

74. NORWAY has announced a three-film shortlist since 2010, like their Scandinavian neighbors in Denmark. It’s difficult to see Norway choosing anything other than the long-anticipated adventure film “Kon-Tiki”, about the voyage of national hero Thor Heyerdahl and his six-man crew across the Pacific Ocean in a tiny, traditional raft. “Kon-Tiki”, which I've heard was filmed simultaneously in both Norwegian and English versions, is by the same directors as “Max Manus”. It checks all the right boxes...it cost an expensive 15 million US dollars, tells an important story in Norwegian history and will be featured in a special screening at the Toronto Film Festival. Unless it’s a disaster, it’s a lock to represent Norway. I think the other two spots on the shortlist will be taken by coming-of-age drama “The Ornheim Company” and the gross-out relationship comedy “The Almost Man” (Best Picture in Karlovy Vary 2012). Two other films- Noomi Rapace’s horror-thriller “Babycall” and Peter Naess’ (“Elling”) new war drama about Allied and Nazi soldiers forced to work together to survive (co-starring Rupert “Ron Weasley” Grint)- may make the shortlist but they won’t be able to beat “Kon-Tiki”.

75. PAKISTAN (last submitted 1963!!!), as I note every year, has not submitted a film to the Oscar race in nearly a half-century- more than any other country. I’m not sure why that is...Pakistan does have a domestic film industry (though it’s not doing so well), but they simply don’t have any interest. Pakistan did in fact win their first-ever Oscar last year when director Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy won for Best Documentary Short for “Saving Faces”, which I hear is an amazing film. If last year’s Oscar inspires them to send a film, it will surely be “Waar”, an expensive action movie (and not a musical!) advertised as the most anticipated Pakistani film of all time. Then again, even if Pakistan wanted to send it, it might contain too much English. For the sake of completion, I’ll predict “Waar”, with Bollywood-style musical drama “Fatima”, about an impoverished young woman in second position.

76. PALESTINE (last submitted 2008) has been absent for the past three years (anyone know why?) but I think they’ll submit “Habibi” this year IF it gets a qualifying cinema run in the Palestinian Territories (the film been has screened there, but I'm not sure if it has had an Oscar-qualifying seven-day run). "Habibi" is a rare film from the Gaza Strip about two Gazan students living in the West Bank whose romance comes under threat due to family pressures after they are forced to return to Gaza. The female-helmed film won Best Arab Film in Dubai and has screened at a number of festivals, including in the United States. Annemarie Jacir, who represented Palestine in 2008, has a new film but I don’t think it will be released in time.

77. PERU has one of the easiest decisions this year. Not only do they have a fantastic film to send- “The Bad Intentions”, a black comedy about a nasty little girl obsessed with death, set against a backdrop of strict Catholicism, Maoist rebels and nasty politics- but they don’t really have anything else. “Bad Intentions” has gotten great reviews and even has an outside shot of a second Oscar nod for Peru. Peru’s other eligible films include some comedies and one horror movie. Distant runner-up: drama “Casadentro” (about an elderly woman preparing for the visit of her daughter and granddaughter), but you can count on “Bad Intentions” to rep Peru.

78. THE PHILIPPINES has sent more films to the Foreign Oscar competition than any other country in Southeast Asia (22 by my count) but without any success. I’ve seen eight of them and only two of them were really good movies (“Dekada ‘70” and the very low-budget “Maximo Oliveros”) so this is not really a surprise. This year, I see the three main Filipino contenders for Oscar as: terrorism drama “Captive”, crime biography “Manila Kingpin: The Asiong Salonga Story” and illegal immigrant drama “A Mother’s Story”. “Captive”, about the real-life kidnapping of a number of foreign vacationers (will it have too much English??) by the Abu Sayyaf terrorist group, is clearly the big name this year. The film is directed by the hottest Filipino director on the film fest circuit (Brillante Mendoza) and stars French actress Isabelle Huppert (who, oddly enough, also co-stars in one of the South Korean contenders). “A Mother’s Story” is about a woman who decides to stay in the United States illegally to send money home to her family in the Philippines (the reviews make it sound a lot like their 2000 submission, although that was about a law-abiding woman who worked legally as a maid in Hong Kong). “Manila Kingpin” is a gritty B&W crime drama detailing the life of a real-life crime lord in the 1960s. All three received the prestigious ‘A’ rating from the national Cinema Evaluation Board, entitling the filmmakers to significant tax breaks. The other three ‘A’-rated contenders that I know about include two arthouse films: “The Dance of Two Left Feet”, a gay-themed docudrama incorporating a great deal of dance performance, and “Palawan Fate” a languorous, slow-paced film about life on the island of Palawan; and one unlikely horror film- "The Healing", starring Vilma Santos. Both have played at a number of festivals. Then again, the Filipinos often choose a movie released at the last minute, so maybe there’s something I have overlooked...My prediction: “A Mother’s Story” reps the Philippines, followed by “Manila Kingpin” and “Captive” in third.

POSSIBLE DEBUTS: I think we are likely to see debut entries from KOSOVO and/or PARAGUAY. PARAGUAY is the only South American country never to enter the Oscar race, but this year they've premiered a long-awaited drama based on their 19th century war of independence- “Libertad”- which is a co-production with Argentina. Newly independent KOSOVO may send "Lamb of God" (a.k.a. "Agnus Dei"), another war drama, this time about a Kosovar born of forbidden Serbian-Albanian parentage. There's also Communist LAOS, which could potentially send “At the Horizon”, a thriller about the escalating dispute between a spoiled rich kid and a motorcycle mechanic.