Foreign Film Oscar Prediction 2012-2013, ISRAEL to PHILIPPINES

And here's Group 3....including multiple nominees Israel, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Mexico, the Netherlands and Norway

53. ISRAEL usually (but not always) selects a film from the Jerusalem Film Festival and it always chooses the winner of the Best Picture award at the Ophir Awards, which will be announced in September (as long as the winning film is not in English). This year’s front-runner is “God’s Neighbours”, a drama about a gang of religious Jews and the dangers of religious extremism. It played at Cannes Critics Week in May. Most of the Israeli contenders this year are by new or untested directors, with the exception of Dover Kosashvili (who repped Israel way back in 2001) who has “Thirty Plus”, a comedy about a single woman in her 30s matching wits with her manipulative mother, who refuses to have an operation until she gets a grandchild. Also very possible- “Fill the Void”, about an Orthodox Jewish girl presented with a terrible moral dilemma between love and family obligation. The other two Ophir Best Picture nominees will probably be filled by “Rock the Casbah”, about an Israeli soldier in the Occupied Territories, circa 1989, and “Epilogue”, about an idealistic elderly couple who decide to commit suicide together. Most of these films have not premiered anywhere yet except Jerusalem, so you might also see “Yossi”, a gay-themed sequel to “Yossi & Jagger” in the mix (though Eytan Fox has never done well at the Ophirs), "Sharqiyah", a film about a Bedouin trying to stop the destruction of his village (and the surprise winner in Jerusalem) or even “The Ballad of the Weeping Spring”, a drama about a man trying to reunite a band to play for his dying father. Anyway, my prediction for the Ophirs/Oscars: the Israeli Academy can be unpredictable but “God’s Neighbours” looks like the frontrunner for now.

54. ITALY- may have more Oscars than any other country (13) but five of those wins came from the 1950s. Since their win in 1999 for the delightful “Life is Beautiful”, they’ve managed merely one lonely nomination (an inexplicable nod for the undeserving “Don’t Tell”) plus a shortlist spot for Giuseppe Tornatore’s underrated “La Sconosciuta”. Italy is still making good movies, but doesn’t usually send them. Instead, they send solid but forgettable dramas. Perhaps they should choose one of their breezy comedies (“Bread and Tulips”, “Loose Cannons”) instead. This year, Italy has a few prominent films, but none that I think will net them an Oscar nomination this year. From three previously submitted directors, come Berlin/Donatello winner “Caesar Must Die”, political conspiracy thriller “Piazza Fontana” and Cannes Grand Prix-winning reality-television satire “Reality” (Cannes), in the Neapolitan dialect. “Caesar Must Die”, a docudrama featuring real prisoners in a staging of Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar, has won the arty Berlin Film Festival and swept the major awards at the mainstream national Donatello Awards. “Piazza Fontana” is about a series of real-life terrorist incidents in 1969. Reviews have been the best of the three films, but it’s said to be extremely confusing for those without a knowledge of Italian history and politics. “Reality” is by the director of “Gomorrah” (which the Academy did not like, nor did I) and concerns a poor fisherman who becomes a reality TV contestant. The other films that I think will be on Italy’s shortlist include breezy comedy “Magnifica Presenza” (choose it!) by Ferzan Ozpetek who is always on the Italian shortlist, “Diaz: Don’t Clean Up the Blood”, about the 2001 G8 riots in Genoa and “The Entrepreneur”, a drama about a factory owner trying to avoid financial ruin. My predictions: Italy chooses “Caesar Must Die”. Runner-ups: “Piazza Fontana”, “Diaz: Don’t Clean Up the Blood”, “Reality” and “Magnificent Presence”, in that order.

55. JAPAN is one of the most difficult countries to predict and I have never gotten them right yet. This year, I think it will be a battle between two new releases (August 2012) by previously submitted directors. 77-year old director Yasuo Furuhata and 81-year old semi-retired film star Ken Takakura have re-teamed together on the all-star “Anata e” (also known as “Dear” or “To You”), 13 years after the (well-meaning but dull) “Poppoya” swept the Japanese Academy Awards and represented Japan at the Oscars in 1999/2000. “Anata e” is a drama about an elderly man on a journey across Japan to spread his wife’s ashes. On the journey, he learns more than he expected about her life. Many A-list Japanese actors make cameos along the way. Then there’s Yojiro Takita, who deservedly won the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar for “Departures”- the first win for Japan in more than fifty years. Takita's latest film is “Insight Into the Universe”, a stylish, period drama set in the 17th century, about an astronomer developing revolutionary methods to improve the Japanese calendar. Though the subject sounds quite boring, the trailer looks downright exciting. Which one will Japan choose? I think “Insight” sounds more likely, but I’m going to predict the age and experience of “Anata e”. Since Japan often does make an unpredictable choice, there are four other films that should be considered a threat: “Genji Monogatari”, starring Miki Nakatani (“Confessions”) is a gorgeous period piece based on the famed 11th century Japanese novel, but the film has barely made a blip in cinematic circles. “Letter to Momo” is an acclaimed animated film about a young girl dealing with the death of her father, though Japan has been reluctant to choose anime since two losses in the 1990s. “Hara Kiri: Death of a Samurai” (Cannes 2011) and “Himizu” (Venice 2011) have both been widely seen internationally, but their very famous directors Takashi Miike and Shion Sono are both better known for low-budget horror and cult films than mainstream international successes. “Hara Kiri” is the story of a samurai living during the downfall of their powerful warrior class, while “Himizu” is about two teens in post-tsunami Japan who decide to take revenge on those they consider to be bad people. Third tier: Japan occasionally goes with comedy and if so, they should choose screwball comedy “Once in a Blue Moon” (by the delightful Koki Mitani), while two dramas starring Koji Yakusho- “Chronicles of My Mother” (a tribute to Ozu) and “Hayabusa: The Long Voyage Home” (a true story about Japanese space exploration from the point of view of those on the ground) are unlikely but possible. My prediction: “Anata e”, followed by “Insight Into the Universe”, and “Hara Kiri”.

56. JORDAN (last submitted 2008) may well return to the competition with “The Last Friday” a wry comedy-drama about a middle-class man who has gambled his savings away, his relationship with his estranged family, and his spiritual awakening when he discovers he needs an operation he cannot afford. The film won awards at Dubai and played in Berlin. The other contender would be “Seven Hour Difference”, a romance which has gotten less visibility. No feature film had been made in the decades before 2008, so it’s great that Jordan is producing a couple of films a year nowadays.

57. KAZAKHSTAN has one of the easiest decisions this year. “Myn Bala: Warriors of the Steppe” (a.k.a. A Thousand Boys) is a long-awaited, expensive, nationalist period epic that has also gotten good reviews. It checks every box! The story is about an 18th century army of teens who lead a Kazakh army to defeat the oppressive Dzhungars. Kazakhstan has sent period epics in the past, the director has been selected before (for “Strayed”) and the film is near-certain to represent Kazakhstan. Runner-up: “Student”, a Kazakh version of Dostoevsky’s Crime & Punishment.

58. KOREA usually chooses a shortlist of about six films. This year, I expect they’ll choose seven, which will be: “In Another Country” (Cannes), a comic romance co-starring Isabelle Huppert in three separate stories about a French woman in Korea, “Masquerade”, a Korean version of The Prince and the Pauper set in 17th century Korea, “My Way”(directed by Kang Je-kyu, "Taegukgi") , a patriotic drama about Koreans fighting against Japanese occupation, “Nameless Gangster”, an action-thriller that focuses on gangs and political corruption in the 1980s and 1990s, “Punch” a sleeper hit teen drama which examines multi-cultural issues and wowed local critics, “Taste of Money” (Cannes), a soap opera about intrigue amongst a family of millionaires, and “The Thieves”, an all-star commercial heist film referred to as a Korean "Ocean’s Eleven”. It’s entirely possible one of those could be displaced by auteur filmmaker Kim Ki-duk’s latest film “Amen”. Kim has represented Korea before, but his latest is supposed to be uninspiring. Other dark horse possibilities for the shortlist include “As One”, a drama about table tennis, “The Concubine” and “Russian Coffee”, a pair of pretty costume dramas, “Architecture 101” and “Dancing Queen”, a pair of popular romantic comedies, “The Great Heist”, a mainstream action-comedy about ice smuggling in medieval Korea and “Unbowed”, based on the true story of a man whose grievances lead him to attack a judge with a crossbow. There is no clear frontrunners as many of the leading contenders on paper (i.e. “My Way”) have gotten middling reviews from international critics while sleepers like “Punch” have done much better. At least one (“In Another Country”) may contain too much English to qualify. My predictions: the Koreans go with “Masquerade” with runner-ups “Nameless Gangster”, “My Way” and “In Another Country” in that order.

59. KUWAIT (last submitted 1978) is the only Gulf Arab country ever to enter the race, which they did twice in 1972 and 1978. If it weren’t for some release date confusion, I would bet money that they would enter the competition this year for the first time in more than three decades. “Tora Bora”, a drama about a man and his wife who search for their missing son in the mountains of Afghanistan, appears to have premiered in Kuwait a few weeks before last year’s cutoff date, even though it opened the Gulf Film Festival in 2012, where it won awards. After Iran’s win last year, I’m hoping the Gulfies will be inspired to send in their own entries.

60. KYRGYZSTAN (last submitted 2010) has produced seven films this year according to the new and improved Kyrgyz cinema website. The frontrunner for the Oscars is clearly “Empty Home” by previously submitted director Nurbek Egen (“Wedding Chest”), a dark drama about a 19-year Kyrgyz village girl/runaway bride who runs off to Moscow to seek a better life. It played in Seattle. Also possible: the soon-to-be-released “Princess Nazik”, which received a grant at Locarno 2010 and which is scheduled to premiere in August.

61. LATVIA skipped last year, although they had a good WWII story to send (“Threesome Dance”). They’ve got a number of eligible films this year, so here’s hoping that they return. My prediction is that they send “”, which won Best Picture at the Latvian Film Festival, celebrating films from the past two years. The film tells three stories based on three different novels, loosely based on the story of Lilith, the woman God created before Eve. The film is in Russian- not necessarily the favorite language in the Baltics- but Latvia is the most comfortably bilingual of the three republics and the film did receive some Latvian government funding, so I think it should be okay. If they want a more culturally ‘Latvian’ film, they’ll choose between slacker comedy “Kolka Cool”, and teen crime drama “People Out There” (Karlovy Vary) about a young Latvian who goes to extraordinary means to get the money necessary to impress a rich girl. I think the popular “Kolka” has the edge. Unlikely: village girl drama “Mona” was seven years in the making, but it was shut out of most of the Latvian film nominations (ironically so was Latvia’s 2009 submission “Amaya”).

62. LEBANON has sent more films to the Oscars than any Arab country other than North African heavyweights Algeria and Egypt, but despite a pair of charming comedies from Nadine Labaki and the underrated drama of “West Beyrouth”, Lebanon has so far failed to make the final round. As far as I know, they have a quartet of films they could send this year: an anti-Israeli hit action film co-produced with Iran (“33 Days”), a sultry romantic drama about a woman in red seducing a seminary student (“Heels of War”), a thriller about a man who runs into the woman who convinced him to commit a murder decades before (“A Man of Honor”) and a quirky comedy about a taxi driver (“Taxi Ballad”). A fifth contender, romantic drama “Beirut Hotel”, has so far been banned from screening in Lebanon due to political and sexual sensitivities. So, which film will the Lebanese send to the Oscars? Lebanon doesn’t send a film unless they feel it’s a real contender, but if they do I’m guessing they go with the quirky “Heels of War” (aka “Tannoura Maxi”), the eccentric love story allegedly based on how director Joe Bou Eid’s parents met. Runner-up: “A Man of Honor”. They’d only choose “33 Days” to make a political point, and not sure that the Lebanese Academy is interested in doing this.

63. LITHUANIA was one of four Eastern European countries I visited this year, and I found it interesting to note how local people reacted when I asked about how I could find local cinema to watch. In tiny Estonia, two stores proudly showed me the way to a prominently displayed section of Estonian DVDs, almost all of with had English subtitles. In Latvia, shopkeepers would usually scratch their head and say “Yes, I think we have one or two Latvian films in the store, but I’m not sure”. In Lithuania, they looked at me with blank looks, like I was crazy for asking. One person said “No. Our country has only ever had one successful film in our entire history”. At the Lithuanian Film Museum in Vilnius, they clearly appreciated my interest and said apologetically that they didn’t know why local films were not available on DVD. I suppose this partly explains why they were late among the ex-Soviet Republics to join the competition (11th out of 12, although three republics- Moldova, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan- don’t compete). Having said all that, the Lithuanians have been a semi-regular participant since 2006 and they’ve had a good year. The two frontrunners represent style vs. substance. “Fireheart: Tadas Blinda” is the “only successful Lithuanian film” mentioned to me in Vilnius. It has a big budget (by local standards) and was a major domestic hit in a country where clearly not many people watch local movies. The film, about a romance between a low-born peasant and a noblewoman, is set against the background of a 19th century peasant revolt. It actually got mixed reviews but it’s as big as Lithuanian movies get! “Citadel of Sleeping Butterflies” was the big winner at this year’s Lithuanian Oscars (the Silver Cranes), beating “Tadas Blinda” for Best Picture and Best Director. That film is about a middle-aged woman who finds meaning in her life when she develops a friendship with a group of prostitutes. Lithuania once chose a documentary, making me think that they could also consider “Barzakh”, a well-regarded feature about Chechen families and their life after the civil war with Russia. Out of their league: “Vanishing Waves” (Karlovy Vary) and “Narcissus” (Silver Crane nominee). My prediction: “Tadas Blinda”.

64. LUXEMBOURG has missed the past two years (last year they had no eligible films...most were minority co-productions or were in English...) but they have two eligible films this year. The more likely of the two is “Butterfly Symmetry”, a surreal comedy described as a “story-within-a-story”. In it, a misogynistic chess champion is humiliated by a young female prodigy whom he eventually begins falling in love with. Making the plot more complicated, all of this is being imagined by an aging writer in a retirement home. Sounds very complicated. Less likely is children’s adventure film “Schatzritter” whose poster looks suspiciously like a Harry Potter film. A highly anticipated crime drama, “Dead Angle” won’t premiere until three days after the deadline.

65. MACEDONIA’s cinema rarely features big international stars but this year they have Victoria Abril in “The Woman Who Brushed Off Her Tears” (Berlin), which is also known as “Man on Asphalt”. It’s a whimsical drama about the parallel lives of a Parisian woman (Abril) and a Macedonian village woman (director Mitevska’s sister). Although reviews haven’t been kind, it should be able to beat the other Macedonian film released this year, dark horse “Skopje Remixed”, a diverse omnibus film featuring nine shorts about life and love in the Macedonian capital. There is a chance that one or both of the two other hotly anticipated and recently completed Macedonian films will be released in Macedonian cinemas before the September 30 deadline. Both will have their world premieres in Macedonia’s Bitola Film Festival in September. The controversial “The Third Half”, the supposedly true story of a Jewish football coach in Nazi-occupied Macedonia, will be fierce competition. “Half” has infuriated neighboring Bulgaria, some of whom have urged a condemnation of the film, which alleges Bulgaria collaborated with the Nazis to deport and murder Macedonian Jews (Bulgaria was an ally of Nazi Germany, but has long claimed it was the only one not to deport Jews). “Balkan Is Not Dead”, which takes place in 1905, is a period piece about the romance between Turkey’s General Ataturk and a Macedonian girl. Ironically, the directors of “Third Half” and “Balkan Is Not Dead” co-directed Macedonia’s bizarre 1998 submission “Goodbye 20th Century” (which featured a murderous Santa Claus). If all four films are eligible, I predict “Balkan Is Not Dead” will beat the other three. However, since I think “Balkan” will be eligible next year, I’m predicting “The Woman Who Brushed Off Her Tears”.

66. MALAYSIA (last submitted 2004) sent a film to the competition only once, despite having one of the highest film outputs in Southeast Asia. Last year, the film I predicted would coax them back into the race (“The Malay Chronicles”) won Best Picture at the National Film Awards, but was not sent to the Oscars. This year, they don’t have any outstanding films this year that would make me believe they would re-enter. Two of the better regarded candidates include “Songlap”, a drama about forced prostitution and human trafficking and “Ombak Rindu”, a romantic tearjerker. They also have some high-profile commercial films including action-thrillers “Bunohan” and “The Collector”, Malaysia’s first 3D film “The 29th of February” and Malaysia’s first sci-fi film “Manetra”. For the sake of completion, I’ll guess they send “The 29th of February”, about a man who ages only once every four years, and “Songlap” as the runner-up.

67. MEXICO has gotten four Oscar nominations in the past twelve years plus one additional shortlist spot. Mexico typically releases a lengthy “shortlist” of films in late August (usually around 10-12). Things are very confusing in Mexico this year. Just to remind, films are only eligible if they premiered in Mexican cinemas between October 2011 and September 2012. The two top Mexican films on the film festival circuit this year- Cannes 2012 Un Certain Regard winner “After Lucia” and Cannes 2012 Best Director winner “Post Tenebras Lux”- are both scheduled to open in local cinemas in October 2012. Gritty crime thriller “Days of Grace” was released in April 2012 to excellent reviews (though it is said to be a bit uneven), and it won five awards at the Mexican Ariel Awards....but Mexico somehow shortlisted it last year when it lost to “Miss Bala”. Was it eligible last year?? Who knows? And “La Vida Precoz y Breve de Sabina Rivas”, by the director of “Innocent Voices”, has been completed but still has no release date...I think Mexico will select “Pastorela”, a lively and popular comedy that won Best Picture at this year’s Ariels, against tough competition from “Days of Grace”. “Pastorela” takes a comical look at the rivalry between a church pastor and a local cop going to war over who gets to play the part of the Devil in the annual Christmas pageant. It sounds really funny. As for the other contenders, “Days of Grace” is said to be exciting but messy and chaotic. “After Lucia”, a drama about a the effects of bullying on a young, popular girl, is supposed to be great, but it's a much “smaller” and quieter film than Mexico typically chooses. The arty “Post Tenebras Lux” is just supposed to be terrible! So, even without all these release date problems, I was predicting “Pastorela” anyway. Other films we can expect to see on the Mexican shortlist include: “Between Us”, a black comedy about the disintegration of a marriage, “Los Chidos”, another black comedy, this time about a gringo American who wanders into the life of a low-class Mexican family, “Colosino: El Asesinato”, a political thriller about a fictional assassination in the 1990s, “Lu’s Dream”, a drama about a woman recovering from the death of her young son, “Reasons of the Heart”, an adaptation of Madame Bovary by Arturo Ripstein (who has repped Mexico a record five times) and “A Secret World” about the road journey of a sexually adventurous teen. I think the runner-ups will be “After Lucia” (if it gets an early release) and "Colosino", since Mexico usually leans towards more commercially popular films.

68. MONGOLIA (last submitted 2005) is the latest country to introduce annual National Film Awards and this year’s three big winners were thriller “Mind Stealer” (Best Film, Actor, Screenplay and three others), emigration drama “The Men with Blue Dots” (Best Director and one other) and historical costume drama “Bogd Khan” (two small awards). The trailers for all three look much more professional than you might expect, which may lead to a Mongolian film in the Oscar competition for the first time since 2005. Despite “Bogd Khan”’s weaker showing at the National Film Awards, it was screened for foreign investors in Cannes and is the most likely candidate, followed by “Blue Dots”, which has European partners.

69. MOROCCO made the shortlist for the first time last year and, in all likelihood, pipped Germany’s “Pina” for sixth place, just missing a potential Cinderella-story Oscar nomination...Unfortunately, coming in sixth place means little at the Oscars but Morocco’s film industry is churning out lots of films lately, with more potential contenders (by my count) than any other Arab country, including Egypt. Despite a plethora of well-received films, Morocco’s Oscar entry will almost certainly be one of two films. My pick is “God’s Horses” directed by Nabil Ayouch (who repped Morocco in 1998 and 2000), which was the only Arab film to play in the Un Certain Regard competition at Cannes this year. “Horses” tells the story of disaffected youth in Morocco who are recruited and convinced to take part in terrorist activities. “Horses” faces strong competition from “Death for Sale” (Berln 2012), which also features disaffected youth, but this time involved in a jewelry heist. In third place: “The Prodigal Son”, in which a son kidnapped by his French mother as a child returns to live with his father in Morocco. In any other year, films like “On the Edge” (four female blue-collar workers are seduced by a life of crime), “Rough Hands” (a well-connected barber helps a woman to engage in visa fraud to reunite with her husband), “Love in the Medina” (a racy box-office hit about a preacher’s son entering into a forbidden sexual relationship) and “The Rif Lover” (opening film in Marrakech; about a lusty young woman who falls for a drug lord) would easily qualify as contenders, but they’ll find it difficult to be noticed this year. Wild card: majority French production “Free Men” starring Tahar Rahim is an acclaimed French film with a Moroccan-born director, based on a true story about Arabs saving Jews during WWII. Last year, Morocco selected a similarly produced film to make the shortlist.

70. NEPAL (last submitted 2006) submitted films somewhat regularly between 1999 and 2006, but then they gave up. This year, they do actually have an Oscar contender that may coax them to return, and that film is “Highway”. “Highway” is one of the first Nepali films on the international film circuit. It played in the Berlin Panorama 2012, it has powerful backers (including Danny Glover), and it was the first Nepali film to merit a Variety review in five years (since their last Oscar submission!). “Highway” is a low-budget film about a number of strangers on a long bus journey, who are delayed when a strike prevents any traffic from moving forward. This is a relevant and topical problem in Nepal and while the film isn’t likely to do well in the Oscar race, sending the film to Hollywood would be a great move to boost the domestic film industry. The film has sparked a vigorous critical debate in Nepal, in newspapers and on the web, with some loving the film and others hating it, with very few people in-between. This year’s winner of the Nepali Film Awards- “Bato Muni Ko Phool”- is not eligible because it was released too early.

71. THE NETHERLANDS has sent three films about World War II to the Oscars in the past nine years (four if you include “Sonny Boy”, in which WWII also plays a role). They’ve also been shortlisted three times....Guess which films? “Winter in Wartime”, “Black Book” and Oscar nominee “Twin Sisters” were all films with WWII at their core. Like Pavlov’s Dog, the Netherlands is almost certain to choose “Süskind “ a true drama about a Dutch Jew who saves the lives of countless Jewish children during the German occupation. Now if that’s not Oscar bait, I don’t know what is! The large committee will give it a “10” on their rating cards before they’ve even started the film. The Netherlands doesn’t have too many other strong contenders this year, although I suppose we will see films like thriller “The Heineken Kidnapping” (the true story of a millionaire held for ransom, starring Rutger Hauer), road movie “Jackie” (two twin sisters search for their long-lost mother in the USA, starring Carice van Houten and Holly Hunter). youth drama “Kauwboy” (Best Youth Film, Berlin 2012) and thriller “Manslaughter”(about an ambulance driver and an accidental death) on the Dutch longlist. Of these, “Heineiken” has the best chance of beating “Süskind”...but don’t count on it. Much-maligned 3D adventure drama “Nova Zembla”, and small, critically praised films like “Hemel” and “Snackbar” will be lucky if they make the longlist.

72. NEW ZEALAND sent a film for the first time last year, but despite two official languages (English and Maori), almost all of their films are in English. They do have a documentary called “Maori Boy Genius”, about a Maori teen accepted to Yale at age 16. It appears it's mostly in English but it does feature quite a bit of Maori...It would be interesting if they released a Maori-language version to qualify for the Oscars.

73. NICARAGUA (last submitted 2010) returned to the competition after a two-decade absence in 2010. Unfortunately, I don’t see that they have any eligible films this year.

74. NORWAY has announced a three-film shortlist since 2010, like their Scandinavian neighbors in Denmark. It’s difficult to see Norway choosing anything other than the long-anticipated adventure film “Kon-Tiki”, about the voyage of national hero Thor Heyerdahl and his six-man crew across the Pacific Ocean in a tiny, traditional raft. “Kon-Tiki”, which I've heard was filmed simultaneously in both Norwegian and English versions, is by the same directors as “Max Manus”. It checks all the right boxes...it cost an expensive 15 million US dollars, tells an important story in Norwegian history and will be featured in a special screening at the Toronto Film Festival. Unless it’s a disaster, it’s a lock to represent Norway. I think the other two spots on the shortlist will be taken by coming-of-age drama “The Ornheim Company” and the gross-out relationship comedy “The Almost Man” (Best Picture in Karlovy Vary 2012). Two other films- Noomi Rapace’s horror-thriller “Babycall” and Peter Naess’ (“Elling”) new war drama about Allied and Nazi soldiers forced to work together to survive (co-starring Rupert “Ron Weasley” Grint)- may make the shortlist but they won’t be able to beat “Kon-Tiki”.

75. PAKISTAN (last submitted 1963!!!), as I note every year, has not submitted a film to the Oscar race in nearly a half-century- more than any other country. I’m not sure why that is...Pakistan does have a domestic film industry (though it’s not doing so well), but they simply don’t have any interest. Pakistan did in fact win their first-ever Oscar last year when director Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy won for Best Documentary Short for “Saving Faces”, which I hear is an amazing film. If last year’s Oscar inspires them to send a film, it will surely be “Waar”, an expensive action movie (and not a musical!) advertised as the most anticipated Pakistani film of all time. Then again, even if Pakistan wanted to send it, it might contain too much English. For the sake of completion, I’ll predict “Waar”, with Bollywood-style musical drama “Fatima”, about an impoverished young woman in second position.

76. PALESTINE (last submitted 2008) has been absent for the past three years (anyone know why?) but I think they’ll submit “Habibi” this year IF it gets a qualifying cinema run in the Palestinian Territories (the film been has screened there, but I'm not sure if it has had an Oscar-qualifying seven-day run). "Habibi" is a rare film from the Gaza Strip about two Gazan students living in the West Bank whose romance comes under threat due to family pressures after they are forced to return to Gaza. The female-helmed film won Best Arab Film in Dubai and has screened at a number of festivals, including in the United States. Annemarie Jacir, who represented Palestine in 2008, has a new film but I don’t think it will be released in time.

77. PERU has one of the easiest decisions this year. Not only do they have a fantastic film to send- “The Bad Intentions”, a black comedy about a nasty little girl obsessed with death, set against a backdrop of strict Catholicism, Maoist rebels and nasty politics- but they don’t really have anything else. “Bad Intentions” has gotten great reviews and even has an outside shot of a second Oscar nod for Peru. Peru’s other eligible films include some comedies and one horror movie. Distant runner-up: drama “Casadentro” (about an elderly woman preparing for the visit of her daughter and granddaughter), but you can count on “Bad Intentions” to rep Peru.

78. THE PHILIPPINES has sent more films to the Foreign Oscar competition than any other country in Southeast Asia (22 by my count) but without any success. I’ve seen eight of them and only two of them were really good movies (“Dekada ‘70” and the very low-budget “Maximo Oliveros”) so this is not really a surprise. This year, I see the three main Filipino contenders for Oscar as: terrorism drama “Captive”, crime biography “Manila Kingpin: The Asiong Salonga Story” and illegal immigrant drama “A Mother’s Story”. “Captive”, about the real-life kidnapping of a number of foreign vacationers (will it have too much English??) by the Abu Sayyaf terrorist group, is clearly the big name this year. The film is directed by the hottest Filipino director on the film fest circuit (Brillante Mendoza) and stars French actress Isabelle Huppert (who, oddly enough, also co-stars in one of the South Korean contenders). “A Mother’s Story” is about a woman who decides to stay in the United States illegally to send money home to her family in the Philippines (the reviews make it sound a lot like their 2000 submission, although that was about a law-abiding woman who worked legally as a maid in Hong Kong). “Manila Kingpin” is a gritty B&W crime drama detailing the life of a real-life crime lord in the 1960s. All three received the prestigious ‘A’ rating from the national Cinema Evaluation Board, entitling the filmmakers to significant tax breaks. The other three ‘A’-rated contenders that I know about include two arthouse films: “The Dance of Two Left Feet”, a gay-themed docudrama incorporating a great deal of dance performance, and “Palawan Fate” a languorous, slow-paced film about life on the island of Palawan; and one unlikely horror film- "The Healing", starring Vilma Santos. Both have played at a number of festivals. Then again, the Filipinos often choose a movie released at the last minute, so maybe there’s something I have overlooked...My prediction: “A Mother’s Story” reps the Philippines, followed by “Manila Kingpin” and “Captive” in third.

POSSIBLE DEBUTS: I think we are likely to see debut entries from KOSOVO and/or PARAGUAY. PARAGUAY is the only South American country never to enter the Oscar race, but this year they've premiered a long-awaited drama based on their 19th century war of independence- “Libertad”- which is a co-production with Argentina. Newly independent KOSOVO may send "Lamb of God" (a.k.a. "Agnus Dei"), another war drama, this time about a Kosovar born of forbidden Serbian-Albanian parentage. There's also Communist LAOS, which could potentially send “At the Horizon”, a thriller about the escalating dispute between a spoiled rich kid and a motorcycle mechanic.

2011-2012 OSCAR FOREIGN FILMS- Western Europe (17 Films)

Well, here is the first batch of predictions where we look at the 17 films from Western Europe. The Western Europeans used to dominate this category, but they have lost momentum in recent years as films from Latin America and the Middle East have been grabbing a growing number of spots.

Despite the 65 films in competition, I think this will be a rather weak year, especially for Europe.


NO CHANCE-

17. GREECE- “Attenberg”
16. SWITZERLAND- “Summer Games”
15. ITALY- “Terraferma”
14. PORTUGAL- “Jose and Pilar”
13. UK- “Patagonia”

Middling reviews will doom the two Italian-language films (from Italy and Switzerland) to oblivion, the UK’s film lacks “oomph”, Portugal’s is the wrong genre, while Greece’s film is too weird and divisive (although I said last year, when they DID get nominated!).
GREECE's “Attenberg” is an experimental black comedy that involves a strange young adult girl experimenting with kissing and making animal noises. The film has all of the quirkiness of last year’s surprise nominee “Dogtooth” without that film’s (inexplicable) good reviews. Not everybody dislikes “Attenberg”, but a lot of people do, and this will keep this film at the bottom of the charts this year.
“Patagonia”, “Summer Games” and “Terraferma” simply don’t have good enough reviews to advance to the next round. Switzerland's “Summer Games” was the surprise winner of the Swiss Oscar competition, which takes into account votes from the public. It’s a dark drama about parents and their teenaged children on a holiday by the sea. A disturbing first hour (which I’ve heard includes the killing of an animal) apparently turns off a lot of viewers before an eventual cathartic ending, but by then it may be too late. It’s also by far the lowest-profile and most obscure film from Western Europe this year, making it likely to get lost in the shuffle. Italy's “Terraferma” is a baity film about illegal African immigrants trying to make it to Europe, and an Italian family who may or may not try to assist them. However, reviews have been surprisingly poor and no one seems to like the movie. The UK's “Patagonia”, a quirky film that features two stories about cross-cultural connections in Wales and Argentina (an old Argentinian woman returns to her ancestral village in Wales...Welsh tourists visit Argentina) has slightly better reviews, but most people prefer one story over another and though it's a good film they say it's also uneven, overlong and out of its league here.
“Jose and Pilar” (PORTUGAL), has actually gotten excellent reviews, but its subject matter- a renowned Portuguese Nobel Laureate and author- is not likely to resonate as much with an Oscar committee that is looking for high drama and strong production values (remember...a lot of voters come from the technical branches...), and they(like me...) may not be familiar with Jose Saramago and his wife. Still, it’s said to be an accomplished documentary (though it failed to make the AMPAS documentary shortlist).



UNLIKELY

12. DENMARK- “Superclasico”
11. ICELAND- “Volcano”
10. BELGIUM- “Bullhead”
9. SPAIN- “Black Bread”
All four of these films are going to have an uphill climb to an Oscar nod. Returning champion Denmark shocked Oscar prognosticators by choosing a fluffy comedy about a schlub and his teenaged son going to visit his ex-wife in Buenos Aires (who has run off with a hot, young football player). It’s all supposed to be very entertaining, but not much more than that. It’s hoping for an “Everybody Famous”/”Simple Simon” slot on the shortlist.
The other three films are anything but comedies...I’ve seen “Bullhead” (which has the best reviews of the four) but I found this violent noirish and occasionally confusing thriller about provincial Belgians involved with selling hormone drugs to fatten cattle to be pretty inconsequential, although there are clearly many who disagree with me. In the end, I kind of felt like “so what?” Iceland’s “Volcano” seems too downbeat and minimalist to succeed here. It’s the story of an elderly retiree, estranged from his children, whose life is turned upside down when his wife falls ill. This Cannes drama is perhaps best-known for its elderly actors in sex scenes, but I don't see that as helping the film much!
As for “Black Bread” from Oscar powerhouse Spain, the film is said to be an exceptionally accomplished film, but also very confusing to those of us who are not familiar with the post-Civil War era in Spain. The film is a murder mystery/war drama/children’s story/morality tale about a child from the losing side of the Civil War whose father is accused of murder after his son finds a corpse. Oscar loves kids, loves Spain and loves war, but I fear “Bread” may miss out due to context.


DARK HORSES

8. IRELAND- “As If I Was Not There”
7. SWEDEN- “Beyond”
6. GERMANY- “Pina”
5. NORWAY- “Happy, Happy”
All of these films have a chance at grabbing at one of the lower rungs of the nine-film shortlist, but in the end I think that all of them will miss out.
Ireland’s “As If I Was Not There”, is a wrenching film set in Bosnia, about a Bosniak lady teacher who is rounded up and sexually assaulted by Serbian troops during the Yugoslav wars. Everyone says it’s a powerful piece of work, but its quiet realism may not be able to break through the pack. Also, ever since “No Man’s Land” won the Oscar ten years ago, the Oscars have never shown any interest in the conflicts in the Balkans.
Scandinavia’s “Beyond” and “Happy Happy” have been touted as strong possibilities for the shortlist, but reviews have not been universally strong. “Beyond” looks great on paper as up-and-coming star Noomi Rapace stars as a Swedish wife who reluctantly returns to her visit her dysfunctional and abusive family when her mother falls ill. Its the sort of family drama that Sweden used to be nominated for on a regular basis, but reviews for this female-driven film vary from very good to tepid. It may have better luck at the Globes. “Happy Happy”, a romantic comedy about the relationships of two married couples living next door to each other in rural northern Norway, is a fun film with good performances, but it’s also quite slight (and the a cappella singers got on my nerves...). Still, reviews have been stronger than expected (winning Sundance) and the film has the potential (certainly more than Denmark) to get a “Simple Simon”/”Everybody Famous” sort of nod.

As for Germany’s dance tribute “Pina”, it clearly has the strongest reviews of the four films here, but I think its weird genre-defying format (it’s a documentary! No, it’s a dance concert! No, it’s a 3D movie!) will annoy (bore?) too many in the large committee who feel the film doesn’t belong in this category, and will also fail to be rescued by the elite committee who will prefer to select films with a fiction narrative (but I could be wrong...the elite committee is still an enigma).


VERY POSSIBLE

4. AUSTRIA- “Breathing”
3. NETHERLANDS- “Sonny Boy”
Austria has chosen a quiet, introspective film (“Breathing”) about a young man serving time in a juvenile detention facility, who finds success at a part-time job working as a mortician’s assistant while dealing with feelings of guilt and loneliness. Although it may be too minimalist and/or cerebral for the Academy, it has gotten very positive reviews and won a minor award at Cannes. The film from the Netherlands, “Sonny Boy”, has not gotten very positive reviews at all. In fact, many critics dislike this film about the taboo relationship between an older, married Dutch woman with a young, black Surinamese in the 1940s, who end up having a baby (Sonny Boy). It ranks 15th of the 17 Western European films on IMDB (it just barely finished ahead of the UK, and way ahead of bottom-ranked Greece) and could not even manage a Best Picture nomination at this year’s Golden Calf Awards in Holland. So, why rank it in third place? The film is total Oscar bait, and the Netherlands knows it. The movie is said to be extremely emotionally involving and exactly the sort of tearjerker that the Oscar committee traditionally goes for. That said, the Oscar committee has been bolder and less traditional in recent years, so pushing their “like” buttons may not be enough anymore. However, like the critically maligned film from Russia, “Sonny Boy” definitely is in with a shot.


FAVORITES

2. FINLAND- “Le Havre”
1. FRANCE- “Declaration of War”

Italy has won more Oscars than France (13-12), but French-language films have the edge over Italian-language films (15-12). Chalk it up to the beauty of the French language (or be cynical and say it’s because French is spoken is many more countries) but I think the two Western European films that will be on the Oscar shortlist are the two movies in the French language.
Finland’s “Le Havre” would not have been eligible to represent Finland a few years ago, but a rule change means it is perfectly acceptable for them to send a film filmed in French and set in France. Aki Kaurismaki’s simple comedy of an old man taking in an illegal African immigrant is said to be one of his more accessible (will I like it? I doubt it, but I’ll try to see it in December when it comes out here in Washington DC) and the “old person teaches and learns from young person” is known to be a fetish plot for Oscar voters. It has a good chance of being recognized by either committee, so it doubles its chances.
France’s “Declaration of War” is even more baity. This semi-autobiographical story of a young couple trying to survive an emotional roller-coaster when their infant child is diagnosed with a deadly form of cancer is said to be well-made and well-acted, with a great deal of heart, gentle humor and a heart-tugging plot line. There are no bad reviews out there, and although it has not won any big awards, this has never been an impediment to Oscar, which doesn’t mind ignoring Cannes/Berlin/Venice winners for something more commercial. France was somewhat at a loss as to what to choose this year, but this semi-commercial feature (not made for film festivals) seems to have been a good choice. I think it’s in...


Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 19

Number of countries participating this year: 17

Number of countries disqualified: None

Number of countries opting out: GREENLAND, which debuted last year, and LUXEMBOURG which had no eligible films in any of its three native languages.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: It’s a weak year worldwide, so I’d say about half....Maybe, seven.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: The world is getting more and more international with the Finnish film in French, the Irish film in Bosnian and the films from Denmark and the UK (but notably NOT Spain) filmed partially in Spanish. I count 14: Bosnian, Catalan, Danish, Dutch, French, German, Greek, Icelandic, Norwegian, Portuguese, Sicilian, Swedish and Welsh- plus smatterings of Finnish (in the Swedish entry), Italian and Spanish. At least five of the films are multi-lingual (Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Sweden, the UK and possibly also Germany).

Spain sent its first-ever Catalan film and Switzerland sent its first-ever film from the Italian community.

Highest profile film: Probably FINLAND’s breezy dramedy “Le Havre” by obnoxious auteur Aki Kaurismaki, although GERMANY’s 3D dancing documentary “Pina” by Wim Wenders has also gotten a lot of buzz.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: France, comme d'habitude.

Longest Shot for a Nomination: GREECE’s uncomfortable black comedy (?) “Attenberg”, whose reviews have been even more divisive than last year’s surprise nominee “Dogtooth”

Number of Comedies: Laugh-out-loud comedies from DENMARK and NORWAY plus FINLAND’s dramedy.

Number of Animated or Horror Films: None.

Number of Documentaries: One and a half. PORTUGAL chose a real documentary (“Jose & Pilar”), while GERMANY’s “Pina” sort of defies description but has generally been competing as a doc (it is also shortlisted for the Oscar documentary award).

Oscar History: Aki Kaurismaki is the only director to have received a nomination in the Best Foreign Language Film category, which he got for the over-rated “Man Without A Past” in 2003. However, an impressive three other directors have been nominated in other categories: Germany’s Wim Wenders (Best Documentary, Buena Vista Social Club, 2000), Iceland’s Runar Runarsson (Best Live Action Short, The Last Farm, 2006) and Ireland’s Juanita Wilson (Best Live Action Short, The Door, 2010).

Italy’s Emanuele Crialese (“Nuovomundo”) and Netherlands’ Maria Peters (“Little Crumb”) have both been selected by for the Oscar race once before, as has Spain’s Agusti Villaronga who co-directed Mexico’s 2003 submisson “Aro Tolbukhin”.

Nine of the seventeen countries have won an Oscar, while six others have been nominated. Only Ireland (which has only entered the competition once before) and Portugal (which holds the record for never winning) have never been nominated.

Number of Female Directors: Six! Pernilla August (Sweden), Valerie Donzelli (France), Maria Peters (Netherlands), Anne Sewitsky (Norway), Athina Rachel Tsangari (Greece) and Juanita Wilson (Ireland). Possibly a record! August is the first woman ever to represent Sweden.

Oldest and Youngest Directors: 66-year old Wim Wenders (Germany) is the senior statesman of the group, while 33-year old Miguel Goncalves Mendes (Portugal) is the youngest.

Familiar Faces: The most obvious answer is Swedish “it” girl Noomi Rapace (“The Girl With a Dragon Tattoo” who trades her tattoos and spiked hair for a more conservative look in Sweden’s “Beyond”, although American audiences will also be very familiar with "Patagonia"'s Matthew Rhys who just finished up a five-year run on “Brothers and Sisters". You’re also likely to recognize Sergi Lopez (“Pan’s Labyrinth”) in “Black Bread”, Kati Outinen a.k.a. Aki Kaurismaki’s muse in “Le Havre”, Swedish actor Stellan Starsgard who plays a doctor in the Bosnian-language Irish entry “As If I Was Not There” and Paprika Steen who plays the wife in “Superclasico”. And for those of you who watch the Oscar submission list year after year, Icelandic actors Throstur Leo Gunnarsson and Theodor Juliusson are both starring in their seventh Icelandic Oscar submission.

Tough Choices: Spain had the toughest choice this year, forced to choose between their well-reviewed 2010 Goya winner “Black Bread”, brand-new “The Sleeping Voice” and the latest quirky entry from Pedro Almodovar, “The Skin I Live In”. Almodovar’s plastic surgery horror film probably would have scared off elderly Oscar voters, so I think Spain chose well even if most bloggers disagree. Belgium, Denmark and Portugal have also suffered online criticism for choosing unlikely dark horses (violent, disturbing “Bullhead”, fluffy romantic comedy “Superclasico” and documentary “Jose and Pilar”) over three of the early favorites (“The Kid With A Bike”, one of the the Brothers Dardennes’ more accessible films, baity Danish family drama “A Family” and “Mysteries of Lisbon”, a sumptuous four-hour soap opera). I can confirm that all three of these were stupid moves. Also snubbed: Austria’s child abuse drama “Michael”, France’s period drama “The Princess of Montpensier” (why did nobody bring this up?), Germany’s “The Poll Diaries” (it was shortlisted), Iceland’s 2010 Edda winner “Undercurrent”, Italy’s papal comedy “We Have A Pope” and Norway’s acclaimed “Oslo, August 31st”.

Controversies and Changes: No big controversies, although one of the members of Denmark’s Oscar selection committee (actor Thomas Magnussen) was accused of vote selling when he contacted two of the three shortlisted directors with a CV indicating he was on the Oscar committee. The Danish Film Institute promised to investigate. Finland’s Aki Kaurismaki ended his ridiculous Oscar boycott, though that was not particularly controversial.

Number of countries I predicted correctly: Only three- ICELAND, IRELAND and SPAIN. I came super-close with AUSTRIA, where I predicted an upset, and BELGIUM (had “Bullhead” in second place behind “The Kid With a Bike”) and would probably have gotten FINLAND, if I hadn’t thought Kaurismaki would continue his pointless Oscar boycott. I’ll admit the documentaries from GERMANY and PORTUGAL, as well as DENMARK’s “Superclasico” took me completely by surprise.

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I’ve already seen the one I was really looking forward to seeing (Norway’s “Happy Happy”; B+) plus Belgium’s “so what?” thriller “Bullhead (C), so I guess now my top choices would be Denmark’s silly-but-fun comedy “Superclasico” and Britain’s Welsh drama “Patagonia”.

Last year's race: I’m proud to say I saw 13 of the 16 films submitted last year, missing only Austria (which will be released on DVD in the US next year), Norway and Switzerland. The best were from the films from the Netherlands and Spain, and the worst was the inept film from Portugal.

NEXT: The candidates from Eastern Europe

Recap: My Views on Last Year's Foreign Oscar Race

Now that we have the official 2012 list, let’s take a look back at last year…..One of the problems with following this category is that most of us don’t get a chance to see the films until a year or so later! This year, I saw 50 of the 66 eligible films. I think the Academy picked mostly good films to be nominated, but they ignored the best ones (as usual). So here’s my chance to let the world know my opinions before we all start predicting next year’s race...

It’s difficult to do a ranking like this…..Of course, the great movies go to the top and the bad movies go to the bottom...But what about well-made films that I didn’t like (France’s “Of Gods and Men”)? Should they go higher or lower than mediocre films that were fun to watch (Korea’s “Barefoot Dream”)?

The American Academy chose nine films for their shortlist….I should note that I’ve only seen eight of these...I never got around to seeing Mexico’s grueling “Biutiful” (the DVD is sitting in my house), but I did see all the other major contenders.


MY OSCAR WINNER: JAPAN, “Confessions”- Hell hath no fury like a Japanese woman scorned...Revenge thriller “Confessions” surprised a lot of people by making the 9-film shortlist, and it amazes me that an entire committee of people could see this intricate, tightly-plotted masterpiece and toss it aside for the likes of a well-made but forgettable film like “Outside the Law”...”Confessions” centers on a Junior High School teacher’s revenge plot against the two students whom she holds responsible for the death of her young daughter. Admittedly, it’s not an easy film to watch. However, my Japanese friends and I barely breathed during the two-hour running time...Tetsuya Nakashima (director of my favorite Japanese film, “Memories of Matsuko”) keeps the twists and turns coming and just when you think you understand everything, you find out how little you actually do. I’d like to say more, but anything else would ruin the plot. This film won Best Picture, Best Director and Best Screenplay at the Japanese Oscars and really should have been honored by the American Academy. (Available on English-subtitled DVD in Hong Kong, and via Ebay, Yesasia and other sites) Grade: A

MY RUNNER-UP: PERU, “Contracorriente” (Undertow)- A married man with a loving wife and a brand-new baby in a coastal community in macho Peru is having a secret homosexual affair with a handsome artist from the capital. This alone would be an intriguing plot for a film but Contracorriente defies your expectations by going for a sad ghost story rather than a soapy melodrama. The writers skillfully maintain maximum conflict and suspense without casting anyone as the villain. You sympathize with all three characters in the love-triangle, understanding that there can be no happy ending for everyone but wondering if there can be one for anyone. That said, there’s plenty of humor and whimsy and a satisfying conclusion. I loved the movie when I saw it, but I loved it even more the next day, since I couldn’t stop thinking about it. Peru is two-for-two with quality gay dramas…Also see 1998’s “Don’t Tell Anyone”. (Available on Netflix) Grade: A-

MY OTHER NOMINEES: (3rd Place) GEORGIA, “Street Days”- Georgia’s Street Days proves that you can make a great film with no money, as long as you have strong actors and a strong script. Checkie is a kind-hearted but aimless middle-aged junkie living in post-Communist Georgia. His long-suffering ex-wife barely has enough money to pay for schoolbooks for their son. While Checkie has failed in life, several of his school classmates have done exceedingly well, which leads him into a tragic moral dilemma. A group of corrupt cops blackmail him to either set up a wealthy ex-classmate’s teenage son with drugs (whereupon they’ll blackmail his rich father), or go to jail. A fascinating character study that deserves a wider release. Grade: A-

(4th Place) TAIWAN, “Monga”- I became a gangster because of a chicken leg. This doesn’t sound like an auspicious beginning for a movie. I hate gangster movies, and when I heard that this film wasn’t even Taiwan’s first choice for the Oscars (Hear Me was selected but it turned out that film had fibbed about its premiere date) I almost didn’t even bother seeing Monga. That would have been a mistake because this is a visually inventive, bloody, sad, roller-coaster ride of a movie. Despite a clichéd plot (four teens form a gang in 1970s Taipei), the film deals with friendships, gang alliances and revenge killings in a fresh and original way. I loved the film and-- wow- what an ending! (Available on DVD with English subtitles in Hong Kong including Yesasia.com) Grade: A-

(5th Place) NETHERLANDS, “Tirza”- Yet another surprise, and an example of the reason why I try to see the whole list every year, even if I don’t find the films very intriguing...I didn’t really want to see this film, but I decided to catch it the local EU Film Festival a week ago. This is basically a mystery about a middle-aged Dutch professor in the midst of a midlife crisis, who travels to Namibia to find his missing daughter who disappeared (or did she?) while travelling with an Arab boyfriend. Namibia is an exotic, beautiful and original filming location. The film is very weird and sometimes uncomfortable to watch due to sexual and violent overtones, but it’s a captivating watch, and the solution is there for the viewer to see. (Available on DVD on Region 2 DVD) Grade: A-

MY SHORTLIST-
6. HONG KONG, “Echoes of the Rainbow”- A intimate family drama set amidst a lower-middle class family in 1960s Hong Kong. The Law family have two sons; 16-year old Desmond is an handsome, overachieving track star, while “Big Ears” is a troublemaking 7-year old. While it doesn’t sound particular exciting, this slice-of-life drama does an excellent job at getting you involved in the life of this family, and the sad reality that tragedy is part of life. The mostly unheralded film treads a dangerous line, but always manages to stay (just barely!) on the right side of sentimental without crossing the line into schmaltz. For those of us who have been to Hong Kong, it’s also a reminder of how much this enclave has changed within one generation. Cinematic highlight: the typhoon. (Available on DVD with English subtitles in Hong Kong, including Yesasia.com) Grade: A-

7. CANADA, “Incendies”- I think my expectations were too high for Canada’s beautiful and brutal mystery...“Incendies” is about two Canadian twins discovering their late mother’s secret past life during the Lebanese civil war (though Lebanon itself is never mentioned). The film got some of the best reviews of the year, and it’s certainly a great film (miles better than its Oscar competition “Outside the Law” and “Dogtooth”). However, I figured out the mystery fairly early on, and I made the mistake of seeing it with a girl who had seen the play and told me about all the twists and turns that were more effectively plotted on stage. Highly recommended, but it just missed my cut...(Available on Netflix) Grade: A-

8. SPAIN, “Even the Rain”- Bolivia didn’t enter the Oscar competition this year, but Spain’s shortlisted film is an intriguing look at that country’s history, economy and politics. A Spanish film crew travels to Bolivia to make a movie about the voyage of Christopher Columbus. Why landlocked Bolivia? Because it’s the cheapest country to make a movie in. While the filmmakers attempt to make a film about the exploitation of the indigenous people by Spanish conquistadors, indigenous people are being marginalized by a real-life government deal threatening the country’s water resources….I thought the plot sounded dull, but it’s quite well done, and you learn a lot. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B+

9. ISRAEL, “Human Resources Manager”- The body of a Romanian immigrant woman killed in a bus bombing goes unclaimed in a morgue for a week, leading to a scandal when news gets out that her employer, a large bakery, didn’t even notice she was missing. The eponymous HR Manager is assigned by his boss to bring the body back to her native Romania. The disinterested company employee is forced to deal with a host of tragicomic situations involving the woman’s dysfunctional family, and a cadre of Romanian drivers, officials, grannies, villagers and soldiers...Well-done road movie. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B+

GOOD MOVIES!
10. KAZAKHSTAN, “Strayed”- Kazakhstan’s intriguing “Strayed” plays like a Russian-language version of The Twilight Zone (it’s also eerily similar to “Tirza”). A man is travelling with his wife and son along a barren highway in the middle of nowhere. Waking up from a nap, he finds his wife and son gone without a trace...He comes across a single cottage with an old man and his young wife (daughter?) living there. The mystery of the disappearances of the wife and boy provides the film’s plot, which holds up well upon a second viewing. Like “Dogtooth” and “St. Tony”, this is a divisive film. Unlike those other two, this is a good one. Pay attention to the costumes! (Available with English subtitles on Kazakhstan DVD) Grade: B+

11. ALBANIA, “East, West, East- The Final Sprint”- Yes, Albanians can do comedy! During the waning months of the isolationist Communist regime of Enver Hoxha, the Albanian Government agrees to send their unprepared national cycling team to a competition in France. Upon arriving in Italy, the Government in Tirana falls, leaving the team stranded without cash and desperate to return home by bicycle, through Italy and Yugoslavia. I really liked this movie. (Available on daaveedee.com with English subtitles) Grade: B+

12. HUNGARY , "Bibliotheque Pascal"- It's weird, original and definitely not for everyone. "Pascal"'s bizarre story of a Romanian woman trafficked to England for prostitution in a high-class brothel boasts surrealism that advances the story, unlike some other pretentious films on the list (yes, Khun Boonmee). I actually this could have been a truly great film if the film had gone the way of "Big Fish" or "Alice in Wonderland", but as it is, it's very good. I'm glad I saw it despite the many negative reviews. (Available on Netflix streaming) Grade: B+

13. DENMARK, “In A Better World”- Of course, this was the eventual Oscar winner, so I don’t need to say much about the plot, which focuses on the disturbing friendship between two bullied 12-year olds in Denmark, and their complicated relationships with their fathers. It's a morality tale done rather well, but although it’s a fine film with fine acting and writing that I would certainly recommend, I don’t think it was the best film in the race. Incidentally, neither did the Danes...It didn’t even get a Best Picture nod at their national film awards. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B+

14. INDIA, “Peepli (Live)”- A messy black comedy about an indebted farmer. Poor Natha is a heavily indebted farmer in fictional Mukhya Pradesh who learns that his impoverished family will receive a large compensation payment if he were to commit suicide. His family are an unsympathetic lot- a conniving brother, foul-mouthed mother, domineering wife and bratty kids. Natha doesn’t want to die, but his brother brags to the village that Natha will soon kill himself to get his family out of debt. Whether Natha will live or die soon becomes a national media circus, and India's tabloid media descends on the tiny rural town of Peepli, with bureaucrats, Mafioso, villagers and reporters debating the worth of his life. Farmer suicides are a very real issue in India...My only complaint is that the film takes its sweet time to get to where its going...Once it does the audience is laughing and then feeling guilty for laughing. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B.

15. CHILE, “The Life of Fish”- A talky relationship drama about a devastatingly handsome Chilean expat living in Germany, and the now-married woman he broke up with years before...The two meet up seemingly by chance at a party in Santiago and they may or may not still be in love (if they ever were in love in the first place...) It’s a little slow and not as good as the director’s “En la Cama” (which Chile submitted in 2003), but director Bize has a talent for real-life dialogue. A rather dull subplot about the death of a friend slows things down a few times, but the ending is a memorable one. Grade: B.

16. ICELAND, “Mamma Gogo”- A sad comedy about Alzheimer’s disease, “Mamma Gogo” is essentially an autobiographical film based on director Fridrik Thor Fridriksson’s filmmaking career, and his relationship with his mother. Kristianbjorg Kjell gives an Oscar-worthy performance as the increasingly frustrated “Gogo” whose comically confused antics slowly give way to anger and frustration about her illness. One gimmick that I didn’t get until the ending credits were that flashbacks to her (as a beautiful young woman) and her husband are actually scenes of actress Kjell from a film she made in 1962. The film is slow, but never tedious, with a great deal of heart. Grade: B

17. BOSNIA,'s "Cirkus Columbia- A well-made family drama set in 1991 in an ethnic Croatian town in Bosnia-Herzegovina. With the nation falling apart, a Croat man who fled during Communist times returns from Germany to help fund Croatian nationalists, along with his beautiful new wife, kicking his first wife and 20-year old son out of the house where they have lived for twenty years. This movie is made by the director of Bosnia's Oscar-winning "No Man's Land", and I'm not sure why it didn't get much traction at Oscar season. (Available on Netflix streaming) Grade: B

18. AFGHANISTAN,'s "Black Tulip"- If there was an award for the best back story, Afghanistan would surely have won the Oscar. The film is about an upper-class Afghan family trying to run a restaurant/cafe in Kabul featuring poetry and music that was banned under the Taliban. The movie makes Afghanistan look like a beautiful, sad and fascinating place...The film is a labor of love by multi-hypenate Sonia Nassery Cole, an Afghan-American woman who stars, directs and co-produces the film. And she does it really well. (Available on Video On Demand as of 10/25/2012) Grade: B

19. ALGERIA, “Hors-la-Loi”- Algeria’s Hors-la-Loi starts with a bang, with a riveting portrayal at the little-known Setif Massacre, in which French troops killed thousands of local Algerians. The film shows the different paths taken by three Algerian brothers living in France, during the decades-long run-up to Algerian independence in 1962. The film is well-made, and certainly important and educational, but it slows down as it goes along and is ultimately way too long for its own good. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B

20. SOUTH KOREA, “A Barefoot Dream”- Like Algeria’s film, this is a difficult one to grade...Based on a true story, “A Barefoot Dream” is a comedy-drama about a self-absorbed Korean entrepreneur who moves to newly independent Timor-Leste to make a quick buck, and ends up trying to sell sneakers to the capital’s barefoot teens. It’s not necessarily a good film, and it starts off downright cheesy. However, Korean directors are masters of emotional manipulation, pressing all the right buttons as if to scream at the audience “LIKE ME!” By the end, you’re supporting the ragtag East Timorese team just like you are supposed to...(Available on Yesasia) Grade: B.

21. VENEZUELA, “Hermano”- A woman and her two teenage sons live in the slums of Caracas. Both sons are soccer stars in the neighborhood- the elder one is an enforcer with a local gang, while the younger one is much more innocent. Life changes forever for the brothers with the occurrence of a brutal accidental murder in the neighborhood. This film challenges your views on personal ambition, brotherhood and revenge and is another great example of a film that proves you don’t need a big budget to make a good movie. I was slightly less moved than my friends who saw this film with me, but it was still very good. B.

22. GERMANY, “When We Leave”- A German-Turkish woman raised in Germany flees an abusive relationship in Turkey with her young son in tow. She returns to her family in Germany, determined to start anew. Her loving family’s welcome turns to scorn when they realize her “visit” is actually a permanent return home and that she plans to disgrace the family by divorcing. A very topical film to be sure. Well-done but flawed with a moving ending. (Available on Netflix) Grade: B

23. AUSTRIA, "La Pivellina"- This is a quirky Italian-language drama from Austria (which wouldn't have been eligible under the old rules) about a poor family of "circus folk" who discover an abandoned baby girl in a park. The girl is accompanied by a note from the mother promising to return shortly. The 50-something matriarch begins becoming increasing attached as days and weeks pass. "La Pivellina" is not the sort of movie I generally like, but this minimalist film was engrossing and memorable. It's even more interesting when you realize the actors are a real family essentially playing themselves (Available on Netflix) Grade: B

24. SOUTH AFRICA- "Life, Above All"- Strongly reminiscent of South Africa's previous Oscar nominee "Yesterday", this film is probably the first internationally seen film in the Sepedi language. Beautifully shot and well-acted by a mostly female, largely child cast, the film focuses on a 13-year old girl named Chandra who is forced to face a lifetime of adversity in a few months of her life. Her baby sister has died, her stepfather is a drunken lout, her mother is sick (probably with AIDS) and her best friend has turned to prostitution to survive. Tackling so many serious issues, this is total Oscar bait. Everything is very well done, but I simply found the film a bit obvious, and not as good as the films higher up on the list. B. (Available on Netflix)

25. SWEDEN, “Simple Simon”- I really can’t understand how this entertaining trifle made it to the Oscar shortlist over “Contracorriente” and “Street Days”. This comedy is the story of Simon, an 18-year old with Asperger’s Syndrome, a mental condition that makes him obsess about times, shapes and colors, and show little regard for the feelings of other people. When Simon learns that his special-needs have caused his older brother to breakup with his girlfriend, he sets out to find him a new one. It’s a fun film with a refreshing visual flair (it tries to make us see the world the way Simon does) and the ending is well-done, but it’s still a standard comedy film that doesn’t have to gravitas to be here. Although she is painted as a villain, I’m afraid I was most sympathetic to the girlfriend driven away by Simon’s maddening antics...(Available on Daaveedee with English subtitles) Grade: B

26. NICARAGUA, “La Yuma”- A teenage girl from an abusive home is trying to train as a female boxer to rise above her surroundings. This is the first film to be made in Nicaragua in twenty years. It’s not up to the technical standards of the Oscar category, but it’s well-made and engaging throughout. The director and lead actress are clearly talented, and her troubled romantic relationship with a local college student is handled very realistically. (Available on Youtube with English subtitles) Grade: B.

27. SLOVAKIA, “The Border”- A fascinating documentary about an ethnic Hungarian village that was divided overnight by Soviet authorities into a border village with Soviet and Czechoslovak halves, dividing families, farms, properties and couples. After the fall of Communism, many thought their separation would be ended forever, but a new border between Slovakia (i.e. the European Union) and Ukraine keeps things complicated. The film misses some major opportunities, but the subject matter is so interesting that doesn’t matter. Grade: B.

AVERAGE FILMS
28. KYRGYZSTAN, “The Light Thief”- Another entertaining but unspectacular film, “The Light Thief” is fascinating most of all for its window on culture in rural Kyrgyzstan. “Mr. Light” connects peasants to the state electricity grid for free and eventually comes into conflict with local politicians. My friend and I argued about the ending and what happened to Mr. Light. Grade: B-

29. ITALY, “The First Beautiful Thing”- This was one of the favorites, and everyone was shocked when it wasn’t nominated. Actually, I think it’s a pretty average Italian comedy-drama about the relationship between a beautiful, free-spirited woman and her son, spanning several decades. Grade: B-

30. IRAQ, “Son of Babylon”- A silent Kurdish granny and her grandson search post-war Iraq for the woman’s son, who was imprisoned under Saddam. It’s hard to say anything bad about this film, which was made under such difficult conditions. It’s a good film, if a bit slow. Grade: B-

31. BELGIUM, “Illegal”- A Russian woman living illegally with her son in Belgium is caught by local authorities and taken to an immigration detention center, while her young son escapes. I disagreed strongly with the politics of the film, as we are supposed to sympathize with the lead character as she refuses to cooperate with the Belgian authorities. Having worked in immigration for three years, I had little sympathy for her as she provided false names, false nationalities and generally refused to try to work within the system to get asylum (which does not seem to be very hard in Western Europe...) Well-acted but preachy...I didn’t like it. (Available on Netflix) Grade: C+

32. CHINA, “Aftershock”- Oh, it all started so well......This big-budget Chinese film begins with a family experiencing the Great Tangshan Earthquake that killed hundreds of thousands, in frightening, gory, tragic detail (the CGI are a bit obvious, but okay). Unfortunately, once the earthquake is over, the film turns into a soap opera with dedicated Communist parents adopting orphans, and bizarre coincidences reuniting families. Maybe my expectations were too high, but the “drama” doesn’t match up to director Feng Xiaogang’s “action”. (Available on Netflix) Grade: C+

33. GREENLAND, “Nuummioq”- Like Kyrgyzstan’s “Light Thief”, the main attraction of this film is to see the landscapes of a country rarely seen on film. A “Nuummioq” (a resident of the Greenlandic capital, Nuuk) likes to drink and hang out with his stepbrother, but his life changes when he finds out he has cancer. An interesting look at what it’s like to live in Greenland, but out of its league here. Grade: C+

34. FRANCE, “Of Gods and Men”- Well-made, well-acted true story about a monastery of French Catholic monks living in Algeria during the 1980s during a period of brutal Islamic violence. It’s nice that the heroic story of these men who lived in harmony with the local community has been memorialized on film, but it’s not a particularly engaging or interesting film and I'm very sorry but frankly I was bored. (Available on Netflix) Grade: C

35. SLOVENIA, "9:06"- This is virtually a short film (71 minutes) about a police detective in Ljubljana investigating what appears to be a suicide. While investigating the man's life, he becomes obsessed with the victim and, for unknown reasons, begins to take on characteristics of the victim. Some good ideas here, but they're not fully fleshed out. (Available on DVD in Slovenia with English subtitles) Grade: C

36. ARGENTINA, “Carancho”- Ricardo Darin stars as an ambulance-chasing lawyer. Lots of juicy endings this year, but otherwise a mostly forgettable thriller. The Argentines can do better. (Available on Netflix) Grade: C

37. RUSSIA, “The Edge”- A technically superior film about life in a Siberian work camp, filled with macho men, racing steam engines and views of the barren steppes of Siberia in the late 1940s. Unfortunately, it’s not particularly engaging or interesting. Grade: C

38. COLOMBIA, “Crab Trap”- A white Colombian wanders into an Afro-Colombian village in search of something or someone. He meets a little girl and takes a room in beachfront lodge....It’s slow but never boring, and I suppose it’s interesting if you think of it as a cultural travelogue, but not much happens. Grade: C

39. BANGLADESH, “Third Person Singular Number”- An educated middle-class Bangladeshi woman from a troubled family (jailed husband, estranged mother) finds it more difficult to find an apartment than a job (landlords think any woman who lives alone must be a prostitute). She ends up in a flirtatious relationship with a successful recording artist, presenting her with a number of moral dilemmas. A flawed film to be sure, and definitely out of its league at the Oscars, but interesting nonetheless. (Available on DVD in Bangladesh with English subtitles) Grade: C

40. LATVIA, "Hong Kong Confidential"- Also known as "Amaya", this is an odd little film set in Hong Kong with mostly Cantonese and English dialogue (with a bit of Japanese thrown in). The director and lead actor are Latvians, but there's no mention of the country or its language in the film (when asked where he is from, the lead says he is from a European country "that nobody has ever heard of"). The other leads are a middle-aged binational couple (Japanese wife and Hong Kong husband) who speak in Cantonese, and a Cantonese-speaking massage parlor employee. It's an average film with a series of mostly forgettable interlocking stories and an ending that didn't make sense to me. (Available on DVD in Latvia with English subtitles) Grade: C-

BAD FILMS
41. GREECE, “Dogtooth”- I love black comedies. I love surreal humor. I love how Takashi Miike can make extreme violence funny. I did not love “Dogtooth”. The film is certainly original, but it takes a fascinating idea (an insane husband and wife raise their three children with no contact with the outside world) and almost makes it boring. Not sure how this made the Top Five....(Available on Netflix)
Grade: C- (and only because the screenplay is an original one)

42. PHILIPPINES, “Noy”- Okay, so maybe this one isn’t a bad film, but it is a forgettable one. “Noy” is a drama about a talented videographer with no formal qualifications lying his way into a job as a documentarian for Filipino TV. He has a rough family life including a handicapped brother who earns money by helping a drug gang and a mother who the family tries to force into a relationship with a gross older American man. The Philippines doesn’t come across looking too good in this movie and Noy is not as sympathetic as the filmmakers want him to be. That’s about all I can remember. (Available in the Philippines with English subtitles) Grade: C-

43. ROMANIA, “If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle”- I’m not partial to the Romanian New Wave, and I found this story of a young man about to released from a juvenile detention facility to be quite boring. It’s a lot better than the mind-numbing “Police Adjective” Romania sent last year, and it does get better as the story builds to its climax, but I was generally bored. (Available on Netflix) Grade. C-

44. FINLAND, “Steam of Life”- I feel bad putting this film so low since it’s a well-made documentary, but not one that managed to capture my interest. A big hit in its native Finland, it’s the story of famously reserved Finnish men baring their life’s traumas in the comfort of the country’s renowned saunas. A lot of sad stories which hopefully provided catharsis to all involved, but I'm afraid I was bored. Grade: C-

45. PORTUGAL, “To Die Like A Man”- It sounds difficult to make a campy movie about an aging drag queen dull but that’s exactly what the Portuguese have done with this overlong melodrama about the misadventures of a transgender cabaret singer, and her (his?) violent 21-year old son from an earlier liaison. Starts off interesting, but could have used some judicious editing (i.e. most scenes with her dog) since it goes on much MUCH too long. (Available on Netflix Streaming) Grade: D+

46. TURKEY "Honey"- This winner of the Golden Bear in Berlin is quite a pretty film if you're interesting in watching a travelogue of rural Turkey. However, this virtually plotless, scriptless film about a little boy whose father disappears (well, not really....you see what happens to him in the first scene) is mind-numbingly slow and not worth watching. (Available on Netflix) Grade: D+

47. POLAND, “All That I Love”- The most memorable thing about this forgettable Cold War drama set in 1980s Communist Poland is that I barely remember seeing it. It’s a trifling, uninteresting coming-of-age tale about a teenager with a punk band. Neighboring Hungary took a similar plot (substituting punk for rock-n-roll) with “Made in Hungaria” which was ten times better. Grade: D

48. BULGARIA, “Eastern Plays”- A drab, depressing drama about the intersecting lives of a recovering Bulgarian drug addict, his neo-Nazi brother, and a Turkish family visiting Bulgaria. Lots of important issues here, but it’s not done in an interesting way. I’m not sure how this film was able to win the Tokyo Film Festival in 2009. Grade: D

49. ESTONIA, “The Temptation of St. Tony”- I was really excited to see this film which is billed as the story of a man who suddenly decides to abandon all morals. Unfortunately, it's an experimental and virtually plotless mess that manages to be shocking and boring at the same time. Looks like a student film project gone awry. (Available on Netflix) Grade: D-

50. THAILAND, “Uncle Boonmee”- Creative? Possibly. Good? No. I lived in Thailand for years and I am a great lover of Thai cinema but I’m embarrassed that their first Cannes win is for this pretentious, nonsensical film. The director seems to think that if he throws enough crazy ideas on the screen that it will be art. (Available on Netflix) Grade: D-

I haven't got a chance to see the other 16 films from Azerbaijan, Brazil, Costa Rica, Croatia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Macedonia, Mexico, Norway, Puerto Rico, Serbia, Switzerland and Uruguay, but will get around to seeing "Biutiful" soon, and have repeatedly and unsuccessfully tried to obtain a copy of Puerto Rico's "Miente".

NEXT: 2012 Oscars- The Films of Western Europe