FOREIGN FILM OSCAR PREDICTIONS- WESTERN EUROPE (17 films)

Here are my predictions for the 17 films from Western Europe (including Turkey)

OUT OF THEIR LEAGUE:
17. GREECE- “Unfair World”
16. PORTUGAL- “Blood of My Blood”
15. TURKEY- “Where the Fire Burns”
14. NORWAY- “Kon-Tiki”
13. GREENLAND- “Inuk”

There are actually no embarrassingly bad films this year to make fun of...I just don’t think any of these five mostly well-received films will have the gravitas to advance to the next round.

GREECE has selected a black comedy about an aging police detective going through a series of moral dilemmas involving murder, innocence and romantic love for a young, mysterious neighbor. I’ve seen “Unfair World” and it’s an interesting yet forgettable film that goes on a bit too long, and peters out in the second half. Despite winning the Best Picture award at the Greek Oscars, it’s a 6/10 at best.

PORTUGAL chose box-office hit “Blood of my Blood” over the more favored, arty “Tabu”. It’s a sprawling family soap opera set in the slums of Lisbon and I liked it quite a lot. Unfortunately, the projector broke during its DC screening after one hour and I’m dying to find out what happened! In any case, it is what it is….a big soap opera and I can’t see it advancing any further.

TURKEY’s “Where the Fire Burns” is a drama about so-called “honor killings”, based on the 2003 murder of a pregnant, unmarried woman by her remorseless father. Though it won the Grand Prize in Montreal, I’ve heard from Turks that it didn’t deserve to represent Turkey (who had a fairly strong year), and while the film is said to highlight a fascinating and topical issue, both the Hollywood Reporter and Variety note sadly that it does so very, very slowly.

GREENLAND and NORWAY (along with ICELAND) are both channeling their Viking pasts with films about men making great journeys. In Norway’s big-budget “Kon-Tiki”, it is the journey of acclaimed explorer Thor Heyerdahl and his crew, making their way across the Pacific Ocean in 1947 in a small, traditional raft. The story was already made into a film in 1951 (by Heyerdahl himself) which ironically won an Oscar for Best Documentary. Technically solid, the film- reportedly the most expensive in Norwegian history- is praised as a rollicking adventure with solid tech credits but a bit formulaic and lacking in character development. Huge but underpopulated GREENLAND (population: 57,000) is the smallest country to compete in this category (stealing this honor from neighboring Iceland in 2010) and their film “Inuk” has gotten the most solid reviews among these five. Everyone says it’s a really interesting film about a Greenlandic teenager from a dysfunctional family making a journey from the capital city (pop: 15.000) to a foster family in the far North. It’s a coming-of-age film and a journey into Greenland’s resurgent indigenous culture, but most of the praise comments on the cultural aspects and the beauty of the landscape. The audience will sit back and enjoy it but not rate it highly enough to compete with the big boys. Thanks to Greenland for sending. I can’t wait to see it.

UNLIKELY TO ADVANCE:

12. NETHERLANDS- “Kauwboy”
11. ICELAND- “The Deep”
10. ITALY- "Caesar Must Die"
9. SWEDEN- “The Hypnotist”

All four of these films face an uphill battle to the shortlist due to one or more problems. The NETHERLANDS’ “Kauwboy” is about a 10-year boy who lives with his single father, and his efforts to care for a small bird. It’s gotten very strong reviews for managing to stay on the right side of sentimental but it’s first and foremost a children’s film. The Dutch probably do these better than everyone, but they’re not likely to be honored here. (Has a children’s movie ever been nominated in this category? I don’t think so).

SWEDEN’s “The Hypnotist” has it all on paper...It’s a mainstream thriller by an Oscar-nominated director and starring an Oscar-nominated actress. The film, Lasse Halstrom’s first Swedish film in 25 years, concerns a detective trying to solve the murder of an entire family by hypnotizing the only surviving witness. It sounds like it could be another “Secret in Their Eyes”. The only problem? Well, it’s not supposed to be very good. Reviews by critics have been the weakest of the Western European films (and also the lowest rating on IMDB- a 5.7) and that should be enough to send the Swedes packing. Neighboring ICELAND’s “The Deep” is said to be a better film, but it’s a difficult one to watch. Based on the true story of the sole survivor of a shipwreck in frigid Icelandic waters, much of the movie is spent watching a man battle alone against the elements.

As for ITALY’s “Caesar Must Die”, this 75-minute winner of the Golden Bear in Berlin is just too oddball to make the cut. As you probably know, it’s a filmed version of William Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar (in several Italian dialects) made starring real inmates at a maximum-security Italian prison. Not everyone likes the movie and winning Berlinale is not a guarantee of making the shortlist (Turkey’s boring “Honey” didn’t make it two years ago). I think it’s much too weird to advance but I’m placing it above films like “Kauwboy” and “Kon-Tiki” on the off chance that the Elite Committee saves it. But I doubt it.


DARK HORSES-

8. FINLAND- “Purge”
7. GERMANY- “Barbara”
6. BELGIUM- “Our Children”
5. SWITZERLAND- “Sister”
Here we have a quartet of grim dramas about Communism, infanticide and family dysfunction. I don’t think any of them will make the Final Nine, but it’s possible one of them may slip through if either of the two Committees really likes them.

The strongest buzz is coming from “L’Enfant en Haut” (aka “Sister”) from SWITZERLAND. Having seen the movie, I’m a bit surprised by this- I thought it was well-made but was somewhat turned off by the unlikable lead characters- but it’s definitely in with a chance. In the film, a 12-year old boy lives with his pretty but aimless and irresponsible older sister near a ski resort in Switzerland. The sister disappears for days at a time with a random series of men. The boy steals everything from food to skis and wallets to support them.

Also from the French-speaking world is BELGIUM’s “A perdre la raison” (aka “Our Children”), based on a real-life series of brutal murders committed by a young mother (Genevieve Lhermitte) against her five young children (reduced to four in the film). I thought the film was a tad too sympathetic to the obviously troubled young mother, but the director does a good job at presenting a story which (in the director’s words) is a different film for everyone who sees it.

FINLAND has chosen “Purge”, based on a bestselling novel. It’s a female-driven film set in neighboring Estonia (but was filmed in the Finnish language) contrasting the lives of two women thrown together by fate. The young woman has just escaped an instance of human trafficking while the older woman was brutalized during the Communist era by Soviets. The film is said to be violent and difficult to watch, but with brilliant acting performances. Though Oscar likes WWII, this may be a bit much for them to take.

This brings us to GERMANY. In the past ten years, the Germans have racked up two wins, four nominations (that lost) plus one additional shortlist spot. The three German films that did not advance included the two best ones the Germans sent (“Goodbye Lenin!” and “Edge of Heaven”). Statistically, that means that this year’s nominee- the cold, forgettable Cold War drama of “Barbara”- should do great. Many people are hailing the film as one of the favorites (it got a Best Pic nomination at the European Film Awards?!) but I found it to be so “average” in every way that I simply can’t believe it will advance. I forgot most of this story of an East German female doctor exiled to small town within hours of seeing the film in Paris (where it was a box-office success).

Switzerland might squeeze through, but I think the others are out.

STRONG POSSIBILITIES:

4. FRANCE- “Les Intouchables”
3. SPAIN- “Blancanieves”
2. DENMARK- “A Royal Affair”

A costume drama, a silent fairy tale and a box-office hit comedy from three of the European powers all stand a decent shot at making this year's shortlist.

FRANCE's "Les Intouchables" was a major box-office hit in the USA by foreign-language standards (it made 10 million Stateside). It's a broadly played comedy about the friendship between a wealthy quadriplegic and his African caretaker. While not a typical Oscar contender, it has won over audiences worldwide. It's a funny and charming film. However, ever since the film beat the most artistic "Rust & Bone" to represent France at the Oscars, there has been an unfortunate backlash against the film which is a shame, because it really is a goof movie. Not every movie at the Oscars has to be about children dying, marital angst or the horrors of World War II! Well-done comedies should have a shot. When all is said and done, "Les Intouchables" is a bit light for the Oscars. It will have to fight hard for that sixth-place slot in the Large Committee because the small one ain't choosing it.

DENMARK's 18th century costume drama "A Royal Affair" has gotten universally positive reviews for it's story of a young queen married to an insane king who falls into the arms of another man. Critics laud it as both a beautiful film and for its exciting screenplay detailing a true story of palace intrigue in a decidedly unstuffy way. It is also said to be a Dark Horse contender for some tech awards like Costume Design. I'm planning on seeing it this week. It's nearly a lock.

I don't think SPAIN's silent, B&W film adaptation of the fairy tale Snow White ("Blancanieves") will impress the large committee. I think the film, set in the 1920s amidst bullfighting, will be too weird for them and it won't appeal to this older, mainstream group. However, I feel pretty strongly that "Blancanieves" stands a strong chance at getting one of the three Elite spots in the way "Kelin" did a few years ago. (They never publicly announce which three films were "saved" by the elite committee, but it's sometimes easy to figure out). Nostalgia for silent films and the recent popularity of "The Artist" will help, not hurt.

LOCKS:

1. AUSTRIA- “Amour”
Even if the larger committee hates “Amour” (and they’ll probably love it...), the small, elite committee was specifically created to make sure films like this get saved. Therefore, Michael Haneke’s “Amour” , the story of a man trying to care for his aging wife, and the winner at the European Film Awards and at Cannes 2012 is an absolute lock for the shortlist and is the favorite to win (though I’m probably predicting Australia).

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 20

Number of countries participating this year: 17

Number of countries opting out: LUXEMBOURG, which decided that they didn’t have  any Oscar-calibre films for the third year in a row, plus IRELAND and the UK, who obviously make mostly English-language films. The Brits should be well-represented in the other categories and are the front-runner for Best Actor (again) thanks to Daniel Day-Lewis.  

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Quite a few are in a chance….I’d say seven.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: Four of the front-runner films are in French (Austria, Belgium, France and Switzerland) + one each in Danish, Dutch, Finnish, German, Greek, Greenlandic, Icelandic, Italian, Norwegian, Portuguese, Swedish and Turkish. The Spanish film is silent with Spanish intertitles. In Italy’s “Caesar Must Die”, the actors each speak  in their own native Italian dialects.

Highest profile film: Michael Haneke’s “Amour”  (Austria) certainly has all the buzz thanks to near-universal love and its win at Cannes, while “Les Intouchables” (France) has all the box-office success. “A Royal Affair” (Denmark) and Berlin winner “Caesar Must Die” (Italy) are also pretty high-profile.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: Of course, it’s Austria.  

Longest Shot for a Nomination: Greece’s “Unfair World” is not a bad film, but among this very strong field, reviews have been decidedly mixed.

Number of Comedies: France’s “Les Intouchables” is a mainstream comedy while Greece’s “Unfair World” is a black comedy-drama

Number of Animated Films, Horror Films or Documentaries: None, although “Caesar Must Die” has elements of a documentary.

Oscar History:  We have two former Oscar nominees in the running. Sweden’s Lasse Halstrom has never been in the running for a Foreign Language Oscar, although he does three Oscar nominations for Best Director (“My Life as a Dog”, “Cider House Rules”) and Best Screenplay (“My Life as a Dog”). Though “My Life as a Dog” was a critical success in the US, Sweden elected to send “Ronia, The Robber’s Daughter” to the Oscars instead of “Dog” way back in 1985

Also, Michael Haneke was nominated for “The White Ribbon” in 2010 but for Germany, not Austria (which has unsuccessfully submitted Haneke films four times previously).

Iceland’s Baltasar Kormakur has represented Iceland three times before (“The Sea”, “White Night Wedding” and “Jar City”) without luck. Italy’s Taviani Brothers (“The Night of the Shooting Stars, 1982), Portugal’s Joao Canijo (“Noite Escura”), Switzerland’s Ursula Meier (“Home”, 2009) and Norway’s Joachim Ronning & Espen Sandberg (“Max Manus, 2009) are also trying their luck with Oscar for the second time.

Nine of the seventeen countries have won an Oscar, while five others have been nominated and one (Turkey) has been shortlisted. Only hapless Portugal (which holds the world record for the most submissions without a nomination) and debutante Greenland (who has only ever entered the race once before) have never made the Final Nine.

Number of Female Directors: Just one. Switzerland’s Ursula Meier.

Oldest and Youngest Directors: The youngest director in the group is Belgium’s 37-year old Joachim Lafosse. 83-year old Vittorio Taziani and his 81-year old brother Paolo are the oldest directors in the competition worldwide.

Familiar Faces:      Experienced cineastes will certainly recognize the octogenarian leads of Austria’s Amour (Jean-Louis Trintignant and Emmanuelle Riva) who have been mainstays of the French cinematic scene for more than half a century. However, more familiar to contemporary audiences are a trio of French actors crossing the border- French actress Lea Seydoux (“Mission Impossible III”, “Inglourious Basterds”) plays the title role in Switzerland’s “Sister”, grande dame Isabelle Huppert co-stars in Austria’s “Amour” while Tahar Rahim (“Un Prophete”) plays the father in Belgium’s “Our Children”.

You’ll likely also recognize American actress Gillian Anderson (“X-Files”) who plays a small role in Switzerland’s “Sister” as well as Mads Mikkelsen in Denmark’s “Royal Affair”, Maribel Verdu in Spain’s “Blancanieves” and Oscar nominee Lena Olin in Sweden’s “The Hypnotist”.

Tough Choices: The toughest decision (as usual) belonged to France, who probably agonized over their decision to dump the acclaimed “Rust & Bone” (starring Best Actress contender Marion Cotillard) for “Les Intouchables”.

Denmark, Spain and Switzerland found themselves in the unusual position of having to eliminate four prior Oscar winners, including two returning to their home countries for the first time in decades. Bille August (“Pelle the Conqueror”) and Xavier Koller (“Journey of Hope”) won the Oscar in 1989 and 1991 respectively and had hoped for a second chance with period dramas “Marie Kroyer”  and “Someone Like Me”. The producers of “Kroyer” apparently opened their film their film early to qualify for the Oscars. Up against “A Royal Affair”, that was a dumb move. The third film on the Danish shortlist was Susanne Bier’s romantic comedy “Love Is All You Need”. Bier won the Oscar in 2011 for “In A Better World”. Fernando Trueba of Spain won the Oscar for “Belle Epoque” in 1994 and his French-language “The Artist and the Model” is widely expected to have come in second place to “Blancanieves” in this year’s Spanish race. 

A few other tough choices of note:  abstract B&W drama “Tabu” was widely expected to represent Portugal. Assisted suicide drama “Time of My Life” dominated the Flemish Film Awards but lost to the French-language “Our Children” (Contrary to popular belief, the Belgians do not automatically take turns between the two halves). I was not a big fan of Mateo Garrone’s horribly overrated “Gomorra” but many predicted he would rep Italy this year with “Reality”.

Also out of the running: “Paradise: Love” (Austria), “Naked Harbor” (Finland), “Alps” (Greece), “Suskind” (Netherlands), “Play” (Sweden) and “Araf” (Turkey).

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I’ve already seen the films from Belgium (B+), France (A-), Germany (C+), Greece (C+) and Switzerland (B) plus half the film from Portugal (the projector broke. L). My first priority would be to finish that film (which I liked quite a lot), but of course I’m also dying to see “Amour”, as well as “Inuk”.

Last year's race: I saw nine of last year’s eighteen films. Two of them were worthy of Oscar nominations (Ireland’s “As If I Am Not There” (A) + France’s “Declaration of War” A-) and it’s rather shocking that they failed to make the cut over mediocrities like “Bullhead” (C-), and “Superclasico”  (C). Worst film of 2011: Greece’s “Attenberg” (F).

NEXT: The candidates from Eastern Europe

2011-2012 OSCAR FOREIGN FILMS- Western Europe (17 Films)

Well, here is the first batch of predictions where we look at the 17 films from Western Europe. The Western Europeans used to dominate this category, but they have lost momentum in recent years as films from Latin America and the Middle East have been grabbing a growing number of spots.

Despite the 65 films in competition, I think this will be a rather weak year, especially for Europe.


NO CHANCE-

17. GREECE- “Attenberg”
16. SWITZERLAND- “Summer Games”
15. ITALY- “Terraferma”
14. PORTUGAL- “Jose and Pilar”
13. UK- “Patagonia”

Middling reviews will doom the two Italian-language films (from Italy and Switzerland) to oblivion, the UK’s film lacks “oomph”, Portugal’s is the wrong genre, while Greece’s film is too weird and divisive (although I said last year, when they DID get nominated!).
GREECE's “Attenberg” is an experimental black comedy that involves a strange young adult girl experimenting with kissing and making animal noises. The film has all of the quirkiness of last year’s surprise nominee “Dogtooth” without that film’s (inexplicable) good reviews. Not everybody dislikes “Attenberg”, but a lot of people do, and this will keep this film at the bottom of the charts this year.
“Patagonia”, “Summer Games” and “Terraferma” simply don’t have good enough reviews to advance to the next round. Switzerland's “Summer Games” was the surprise winner of the Swiss Oscar competition, which takes into account votes from the public. It’s a dark drama about parents and their teenaged children on a holiday by the sea. A disturbing first hour (which I’ve heard includes the killing of an animal) apparently turns off a lot of viewers before an eventual cathartic ending, but by then it may be too late. It’s also by far the lowest-profile and most obscure film from Western Europe this year, making it likely to get lost in the shuffle. Italy's “Terraferma” is a baity film about illegal African immigrants trying to make it to Europe, and an Italian family who may or may not try to assist them. However, reviews have been surprisingly poor and no one seems to like the movie. The UK's “Patagonia”, a quirky film that features two stories about cross-cultural connections in Wales and Argentina (an old Argentinian woman returns to her ancestral village in Wales...Welsh tourists visit Argentina) has slightly better reviews, but most people prefer one story over another and though it's a good film they say it's also uneven, overlong and out of its league here.
“Jose and Pilar” (PORTUGAL), has actually gotten excellent reviews, but its subject matter- a renowned Portuguese Nobel Laureate and author- is not likely to resonate as much with an Oscar committee that is looking for high drama and strong production values (remember...a lot of voters come from the technical branches...), and they(like me...) may not be familiar with Jose Saramago and his wife. Still, it’s said to be an accomplished documentary (though it failed to make the AMPAS documentary shortlist).



UNLIKELY

12. DENMARK- “Superclasico”
11. ICELAND- “Volcano”
10. BELGIUM- “Bullhead”
9. SPAIN- “Black Bread”
All four of these films are going to have an uphill climb to an Oscar nod. Returning champion Denmark shocked Oscar prognosticators by choosing a fluffy comedy about a schlub and his teenaged son going to visit his ex-wife in Buenos Aires (who has run off with a hot, young football player). It’s all supposed to be very entertaining, but not much more than that. It’s hoping for an “Everybody Famous”/”Simple Simon” slot on the shortlist.
The other three films are anything but comedies...I’ve seen “Bullhead” (which has the best reviews of the four) but I found this violent noirish and occasionally confusing thriller about provincial Belgians involved with selling hormone drugs to fatten cattle to be pretty inconsequential, although there are clearly many who disagree with me. In the end, I kind of felt like “so what?” Iceland’s “Volcano” seems too downbeat and minimalist to succeed here. It’s the story of an elderly retiree, estranged from his children, whose life is turned upside down when his wife falls ill. This Cannes drama is perhaps best-known for its elderly actors in sex scenes, but I don't see that as helping the film much!
As for “Black Bread” from Oscar powerhouse Spain, the film is said to be an exceptionally accomplished film, but also very confusing to those of us who are not familiar with the post-Civil War era in Spain. The film is a murder mystery/war drama/children’s story/morality tale about a child from the losing side of the Civil War whose father is accused of murder after his son finds a corpse. Oscar loves kids, loves Spain and loves war, but I fear “Bread” may miss out due to context.


DARK HORSES

8. IRELAND- “As If I Was Not There”
7. SWEDEN- “Beyond”
6. GERMANY- “Pina”
5. NORWAY- “Happy, Happy”
All of these films have a chance at grabbing at one of the lower rungs of the nine-film shortlist, but in the end I think that all of them will miss out.
Ireland’s “As If I Was Not There”, is a wrenching film set in Bosnia, about a Bosniak lady teacher who is rounded up and sexually assaulted by Serbian troops during the Yugoslav wars. Everyone says it’s a powerful piece of work, but its quiet realism may not be able to break through the pack. Also, ever since “No Man’s Land” won the Oscar ten years ago, the Oscars have never shown any interest in the conflicts in the Balkans.
Scandinavia’s “Beyond” and “Happy Happy” have been touted as strong possibilities for the shortlist, but reviews have not been universally strong. “Beyond” looks great on paper as up-and-coming star Noomi Rapace stars as a Swedish wife who reluctantly returns to her visit her dysfunctional and abusive family when her mother falls ill. Its the sort of family drama that Sweden used to be nominated for on a regular basis, but reviews for this female-driven film vary from very good to tepid. It may have better luck at the Globes. “Happy Happy”, a romantic comedy about the relationships of two married couples living next door to each other in rural northern Norway, is a fun film with good performances, but it’s also quite slight (and the a cappella singers got on my nerves...). Still, reviews have been stronger than expected (winning Sundance) and the film has the potential (certainly more than Denmark) to get a “Simple Simon”/”Everybody Famous” sort of nod.

As for Germany’s dance tribute “Pina”, it clearly has the strongest reviews of the four films here, but I think its weird genre-defying format (it’s a documentary! No, it’s a dance concert! No, it’s a 3D movie!) will annoy (bore?) too many in the large committee who feel the film doesn’t belong in this category, and will also fail to be rescued by the elite committee who will prefer to select films with a fiction narrative (but I could be wrong...the elite committee is still an enigma).


VERY POSSIBLE

4. AUSTRIA- “Breathing”
3. NETHERLANDS- “Sonny Boy”
Austria has chosen a quiet, introspective film (“Breathing”) about a young man serving time in a juvenile detention facility, who finds success at a part-time job working as a mortician’s assistant while dealing with feelings of guilt and loneliness. Although it may be too minimalist and/or cerebral for the Academy, it has gotten very positive reviews and won a minor award at Cannes. The film from the Netherlands, “Sonny Boy”, has not gotten very positive reviews at all. In fact, many critics dislike this film about the taboo relationship between an older, married Dutch woman with a young, black Surinamese in the 1940s, who end up having a baby (Sonny Boy). It ranks 15th of the 17 Western European films on IMDB (it just barely finished ahead of the UK, and way ahead of bottom-ranked Greece) and could not even manage a Best Picture nomination at this year’s Golden Calf Awards in Holland. So, why rank it in third place? The film is total Oscar bait, and the Netherlands knows it. The movie is said to be extremely emotionally involving and exactly the sort of tearjerker that the Oscar committee traditionally goes for. That said, the Oscar committee has been bolder and less traditional in recent years, so pushing their “like” buttons may not be enough anymore. However, like the critically maligned film from Russia, “Sonny Boy” definitely is in with a shot.


FAVORITES

2. FINLAND- “Le Havre”
1. FRANCE- “Declaration of War”

Italy has won more Oscars than France (13-12), but French-language films have the edge over Italian-language films (15-12). Chalk it up to the beauty of the French language (or be cynical and say it’s because French is spoken is many more countries) but I think the two Western European films that will be on the Oscar shortlist are the two movies in the French language.
Finland’s “Le Havre” would not have been eligible to represent Finland a few years ago, but a rule change means it is perfectly acceptable for them to send a film filmed in French and set in France. Aki Kaurismaki’s simple comedy of an old man taking in an illegal African immigrant is said to be one of his more accessible (will I like it? I doubt it, but I’ll try to see it in December when it comes out here in Washington DC) and the “old person teaches and learns from young person” is known to be a fetish plot for Oscar voters. It has a good chance of being recognized by either committee, so it doubles its chances.
France’s “Declaration of War” is even more baity. This semi-autobiographical story of a young couple trying to survive an emotional roller-coaster when their infant child is diagnosed with a deadly form of cancer is said to be well-made and well-acted, with a great deal of heart, gentle humor and a heart-tugging plot line. There are no bad reviews out there, and although it has not won any big awards, this has never been an impediment to Oscar, which doesn’t mind ignoring Cannes/Berlin/Venice winners for something more commercial. France was somewhat at a loss as to what to choose this year, but this semi-commercial feature (not made for film festivals) seems to have been a good choice. I think it’s in...


Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 19

Number of countries participating this year: 17

Number of countries disqualified: None

Number of countries opting out: GREENLAND, which debuted last year, and LUXEMBOURG which had no eligible films in any of its three native languages.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: It’s a weak year worldwide, so I’d say about half....Maybe, seven.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: The world is getting more and more international with the Finnish film in French, the Irish film in Bosnian and the films from Denmark and the UK (but notably NOT Spain) filmed partially in Spanish. I count 14: Bosnian, Catalan, Danish, Dutch, French, German, Greek, Icelandic, Norwegian, Portuguese, Sicilian, Swedish and Welsh- plus smatterings of Finnish (in the Swedish entry), Italian and Spanish. At least five of the films are multi-lingual (Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Sweden, the UK and possibly also Germany).

Spain sent its first-ever Catalan film and Switzerland sent its first-ever film from the Italian community.

Highest profile film: Probably FINLAND’s breezy dramedy “Le Havre” by obnoxious auteur Aki Kaurismaki, although GERMANY’s 3D dancing documentary “Pina” by Wim Wenders has also gotten a lot of buzz.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: France, comme d'habitude.

Longest Shot for a Nomination: GREECE’s uncomfortable black comedy (?) “Attenberg”, whose reviews have been even more divisive than last year’s surprise nominee “Dogtooth”

Number of Comedies: Laugh-out-loud comedies from DENMARK and NORWAY plus FINLAND’s dramedy.

Number of Animated or Horror Films: None.

Number of Documentaries: One and a half. PORTUGAL chose a real documentary (“Jose & Pilar”), while GERMANY’s “Pina” sort of defies description but has generally been competing as a doc (it is also shortlisted for the Oscar documentary award).

Oscar History: Aki Kaurismaki is the only director to have received a nomination in the Best Foreign Language Film category, which he got for the over-rated “Man Without A Past” in 2003. However, an impressive three other directors have been nominated in other categories: Germany’s Wim Wenders (Best Documentary, Buena Vista Social Club, 2000), Iceland’s Runar Runarsson (Best Live Action Short, The Last Farm, 2006) and Ireland’s Juanita Wilson (Best Live Action Short, The Door, 2010).

Italy’s Emanuele Crialese (“Nuovomundo”) and Netherlands’ Maria Peters (“Little Crumb”) have both been selected by for the Oscar race once before, as has Spain’s Agusti Villaronga who co-directed Mexico’s 2003 submisson “Aro Tolbukhin”.

Nine of the seventeen countries have won an Oscar, while six others have been nominated. Only Ireland (which has only entered the competition once before) and Portugal (which holds the record for never winning) have never been nominated.

Number of Female Directors: Six! Pernilla August (Sweden), Valerie Donzelli (France), Maria Peters (Netherlands), Anne Sewitsky (Norway), Athina Rachel Tsangari (Greece) and Juanita Wilson (Ireland). Possibly a record! August is the first woman ever to represent Sweden.

Oldest and Youngest Directors: 66-year old Wim Wenders (Germany) is the senior statesman of the group, while 33-year old Miguel Goncalves Mendes (Portugal) is the youngest.

Familiar Faces: The most obvious answer is Swedish “it” girl Noomi Rapace (“The Girl With a Dragon Tattoo” who trades her tattoos and spiked hair for a more conservative look in Sweden’s “Beyond”, although American audiences will also be very familiar with "Patagonia"'s Matthew Rhys who just finished up a five-year run on “Brothers and Sisters". You’re also likely to recognize Sergi Lopez (“Pan’s Labyrinth”) in “Black Bread”, Kati Outinen a.k.a. Aki Kaurismaki’s muse in “Le Havre”, Swedish actor Stellan Starsgard who plays a doctor in the Bosnian-language Irish entry “As If I Was Not There” and Paprika Steen who plays the wife in “Superclasico”. And for those of you who watch the Oscar submission list year after year, Icelandic actors Throstur Leo Gunnarsson and Theodor Juliusson are both starring in their seventh Icelandic Oscar submission.

Tough Choices: Spain had the toughest choice this year, forced to choose between their well-reviewed 2010 Goya winner “Black Bread”, brand-new “The Sleeping Voice” and the latest quirky entry from Pedro Almodovar, “The Skin I Live In”. Almodovar’s plastic surgery horror film probably would have scared off elderly Oscar voters, so I think Spain chose well even if most bloggers disagree. Belgium, Denmark and Portugal have also suffered online criticism for choosing unlikely dark horses (violent, disturbing “Bullhead”, fluffy romantic comedy “Superclasico” and documentary “Jose and Pilar”) over three of the early favorites (“The Kid With A Bike”, one of the the Brothers Dardennes’ more accessible films, baity Danish family drama “A Family” and “Mysteries of Lisbon”, a sumptuous four-hour soap opera). I can confirm that all three of these were stupid moves. Also snubbed: Austria’s child abuse drama “Michael”, France’s period drama “The Princess of Montpensier” (why did nobody bring this up?), Germany’s “The Poll Diaries” (it was shortlisted), Iceland’s 2010 Edda winner “Undercurrent”, Italy’s papal comedy “We Have A Pope” and Norway’s acclaimed “Oslo, August 31st”.

Controversies and Changes: No big controversies, although one of the members of Denmark’s Oscar selection committee (actor Thomas Magnussen) was accused of vote selling when he contacted two of the three shortlisted directors with a CV indicating he was on the Oscar committee. The Danish Film Institute promised to investigate. Finland’s Aki Kaurismaki ended his ridiculous Oscar boycott, though that was not particularly controversial.

Number of countries I predicted correctly: Only three- ICELAND, IRELAND and SPAIN. I came super-close with AUSTRIA, where I predicted an upset, and BELGIUM (had “Bullhead” in second place behind “The Kid With a Bike”) and would probably have gotten FINLAND, if I hadn’t thought Kaurismaki would continue his pointless Oscar boycott. I’ll admit the documentaries from GERMANY and PORTUGAL, as well as DENMARK’s “Superclasico” took me completely by surprise.

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I’ve already seen the one I was really looking forward to seeing (Norway’s “Happy Happy”; B+) plus Belgium’s “so what?” thriller “Bullhead (C), so I guess now my top choices would be Denmark’s silly-but-fun comedy “Superclasico” and Britain’s Welsh drama “Patagonia”.

Last year's race: I’m proud to say I saw 13 of the 16 films submitted last year, missing only Austria (which will be released on DVD in the US next year), Norway and Switzerland. The best were from the films from the Netherlands and Spain, and the worst was the inept film from Portugal.

NEXT: The candidates from Eastern Europe