rihanna: French cinema

Showing posts with label French cinema. Show all posts

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Foreign Film Oscar Prediction 2012-2013, COTE D'IVOIRE to IRELAND

Computer problems have delayed this post, focusing on the second round of 26 countries, including last year's returning champion (Iran) and powerhouses France and Germany.

27. COTE D’IVOIRE (last submitted 1976) won the Oscar in 1977 (before I was born) for “Black and White in Color”. That film- with a French director and overwhelming French cast and crew- would not even be accepted under today’s rules, and this year the Ivoiriens will be absent for the 36^th year in a row. For the sake of completion, their highest-profile film that I know about is “Ultimatum”, billed as the country’s first-ever action flick. Next year, I hope they do finally return with “Run” by young Franco-Ivoirien director Philippe LaCote. It was selected as one of 15 projects to benefit from additional funding at this year’s Cannes Film Workshop.

28. CROATIA premieres most of its domestic releases annually in July at the Pula Film Festival. Most of these films actually premiere in Croatian cinemas the following Oscar eligibility year (which begins October 1), which is why the two last films I predicted for Croatia weren’t actually eligible. I hate to pick the same film two years in a row, but I think the Croatians will send “Lea and Darija”, a true story about the friendship between two teenage girls (one Jewish, one an ethnic German) who rise to fame in the 1930s while World War II looms. It won some small awards at Pula last year and premiered in Croatian cinemas in January 2012. In second place is the oddly titled “Cannibal Vegetarian”, a very dark thriller which has also gotten good reviews. It’s about an abortionist faced with a VERY serious moral dilemma when one of his patients dies on the operating table. In third place is “Night Boats”, a drama about an elderly couple in their 70s running away from their bleak nursing home. Iceland achieved their only Oscar nod for the similar “Children of Nature”. All three of these films have an excellent chance of representing Croatia and all have premiered already. The Oscar will committee will love “Lea” and “Night Boats" though they may hate “Cannibal”. If the Croatians do choose of the new 2012 premieres from Pula, I think the most likely option would be “Halima’s Path”, about a Bosnian woman searching for her dead son who was killed in the war. They offer her DNA testing but she refuses, since her son was secretly adopted. My prediction (again): “Lea & Darija”.

29. CUBA sends films about once every two years. This year, they don’t have much. Their two highest-profile films are a cult hit zombie-comedy (“Juan of the Dead”) and a film sure to upset Cuba’s Communist authorities (“Une Noche”, whose two young stars disappeared in Miami on the way to an event to promote the film, mirroring the film’s story of two young Cubans who escape to the U.S. by boat). Interestingly enough, “Juan” was in fact co-produced by the national film studio, showing that the Communists do have a sense of humor. Cuba’s other films this year are a strange lot, including a much-maligned abstract biography of Leonardo da Vinci (“Vinci”), a pair of gay-themed films by previously honored directors (flirty “Verde Verde” and the independently produced mystery “Chamaco”) and a film about a man teaching mentally handicapped children to swim (“The Pool”). A stronger choice would be “Fabula”, a romance set in the slums of Havana which won Third Prize at last year’s Havana Film Festival. However, the Cubans have lately tended to prefer to send children’s films, meaning that “And Yet It Moves” (“Y Sin Embargo”) is my prediction. It's about what happens when a schoolboy’s tall tale blossoms out of control. It stars a local Cuban youth acting troupe.

The
30. CZECH REPUBLIC has been pretty quiet lately. Though they used to be very successful, they haven’t been nominated in a decade. Bohdan Slama’s “Four Suns” should be considered the favorite. Slama represented the Czech Republic in 2002 and 2005 and the film has enjoyed touting the fact that it is the first-ever Czech film to compete at the Sundance independent film festival. The story revolves around a number of different characters in and around a dysfunctional family. Reviews have been positive but generally unenthusiastic. The big winner at this year’s “Czech Lions” was “Flower Buds”, a similarly-themed film about a diverse series of characters with moral dilemmas, and how their decisions affect those around them. “Long Live the Family”, a black comedy about a family on the run, didn’t do well at the Lions, but it did win Best Picture of 2011 from the Czech Film Critics Association. Oscar nominee Jan Hrebejk (“Divided We Fall”) was represented the Czech Republic in 2000, 2004 and 2010. The prolific director makes roughly one film a year, and his latest “The Holy Quartet” (Svata Ctverice) is a romatic comedy which is scheduled to premiere in August. Out of the running: “Polski Film” was the only Czech film to compete in Karlovy Vary, but it’s comedic plot depends in large part on knowing Czech celebrities who are unknown outside the country. “A Night Too Young” got good reviews in Berlin, but it’s 61-minute running time will mark it as too slight. Vladimir Michalek’s “Messenger” (Closing film in Karlovy Vary) would be my top choice, but it’s not scheduled to open in Czech cinemas until October. I half-heartedly predict “Four Suns”, followed by “Flower Buds”, and “Svata Ctverice”.

31. DENMARK produced fewer films this year (less than twenty) but they still have a very competitive race going, including films by one Oscar winner (Bille August, “Pelle the Conqueror”), two Oscar nominees (Henrik Ruben Ganz and Christian E. Christiansen, Short Film nominees in 1999 and 2007) plus Christoffer Boe (selected by Denmark in 2003). Denmark usually chooses a three-film shortlist to heighten the suspense, and this year I’m fairly certain they will be upcoming historical biography “The Passion of Marie” (Bille August), 18^th century costume drama “A Royal Affair” (Berlin) and World War II thriller “This Life” (Karlovy Vary). Two other possibilities: I would be surprised if “A Hijacking”, about a Danish crew being kidnapped by Somali pirates, or “Teddy Bear”, a gentle dramedy about a bodybuilder looking for love in Thailand, made the cut, but they are dark horses. Thomas Vinterberg’s acclaimed Cannes drama “The Hunt” won’t be eligible until next year. A look at the race: “A Royal Affair” should be considered the favorite. This story of an English princess who marries a crazy Danish price is supposed to be beautiful to look at, and suspenseful to behold. “This Life”, an exciting thriller about a town who join the anti-German resistance, has been a major hit at the box office but has gotten slightly less positive reviews. It will be difficult for Denmark to snub the Oscar-winning August, who is making his first Danish feature in a quarter-century, for “Passion of Marie”, about a famed couple of 19^th century artists. I still predict: “A Royal Affair”, followed by “Passion of Marie”, “This Life”, with “Teddy Bear” in first. The new films by Ganz (dramedy “Excuse Me”), Boe (horror-thriller “Beast”) and Christiansen (tepid thriller “ID:A”) probably won’t factor in.

The
32. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC rejoined the Oscar race for the first time since 1995 and they have had a great film year this year with a few well-reviewed possible films. I predict they will enter the race with “Ana’s Struggle”, the story of a poor flower seller whose beloved teenage son is killed by a drug dealer, and her struggle against a corrupt system to seek justice. They could just as easily send “The King of Najayo”, a gritty drama about a crime lord who continues to run a gangland empire from prison, while the upcoming “Lust”, about a teacher who moves to the countryside, has an outside chance as well.

33. ECUADOR (last submitted 2004) has the second smallest film industry in South America (whither Paraguay) and they’ve only ever submitted two films, including Sebastian Cordero’s riveting thriller “Cronicas”, starring John Leguizamo. This year, I predict Ecuador will return to the race, as they have released two very well-regarded films. The first is the latest from Sebastian Cordero- “Pescador”- which spent seven months on the film festival circuit before finally opening at home in Ecuador. It’s a black comedy about a rural fisherman who teams up with a female con artist to earn money from cocaine that has mysteriously washed up on the beach. They could also choose the intriguing “In the Name of the Daughter”, about a dedicated Communist who insists on spreading her ideals to her entire family and her neighborhood….and who just happens to be a 9-year girl. Two critical hits in one year is great for Ecuador. I think they’ll send “Pescador”.

34. EGYPT’s nominee is often difficult to predict, and I wonder if the Egyptian Academy (which often enjoys choosing challenging films featuring controversial subject matter) will be affected by the recent Islamic shift in the country (romance “A Whole One” was recently pulled from theatres to be re-censored). Although Egypt produces the most films in the Arab world, the number of quality films seems to have been overtaken by Morocco. In any case, Egypt has three front-runners this year (less than usual), all of which are connected in one way or another to the recent revolution. The front-runner is clearly “After the Battle”, which competed in Cannes and which is the complex story of a town outside of Cairo which includes those who fought for and against the recent revolution. “Asmaa”, a modestly budgeted drama about an Egyptian woman with HIV and her dilemma about going public with her disease to get a desperately needed operation, has gotten even better reviews as well as praise for tackling a taboo subject and for its brave lead performance. It was directed by a young revolutionary and blogger who was abused in Tahrir Square. The final (and lowest-profile) of the three main contenders is “Cry of an Ant”, a black comedy about a man who returns to Egypt after ten years jailed in Iraq to face problems in Egypt when he tries to join the revolution there. A darker horse is “18 Days”, a series of short films by a diverse group of directors (including the Yousry Nasrallah, director of “After the Battle”) about the Arab Spring in Cairo. It will be a difficult decision for the Egyptians and I hope they enter (they’ve sent films eight of the past ten years) the race and don’t choose a safer, blander choice (like family drama “Palm of the Moon”). My prediction: the Cannes label will push “Battle” (just barely) to victory over “Asmaa”.

35. ESTONIA is the smallest of the three Baltic Republics, and the only one to regularly participate in this competition (Estonia has sent seven of the past eight years; Latvia + Lithuania sent three each). This year they have a quartet of eligible films, and I’m not sure which one they’ll choose. Will it be “The Idiot”, a surreal artistic film based on a Dostoevsky novel and oft compared to “The Temptation of St. Tony”? Or “Mushrooming”, a political satire/comedy/horror film about politicians lost in the forest? The one with the best festival credentials is international co-production “Lonely Island” (competing in Moscow) about five intersecting stories, although reviews have been mixed. “Demon”, a psychological drama about a trio of persons confronting a moral dilemma in a casino, is an unknown quantity since it won’t premiere until August. It’s a wide-open race….I really have no idea…..My prediction: “Mushrooming” is the surprise nominee, with favorite “Lonely Island” in second place.

36. ETHIOPIA (last submitted 2010) has a small domestic film industry for local consumption, but they very rarely produce anything for the international market (exceptions: “Teza”, “The Athlete”). I can’t see them sending any of their vulgar comedies or amateurish action films to the competition. For the sake of completion, I’ll choose “Across the Atlantic”, a movie filmed in Washington, DC about Ethiopian immigrants and the problems they face in the U.S., but who knows if that would even qualify as an Ethiopian film?

37. FIJI (last submitted 2005) submitted a film once when they made their first-ever feature film. Although Fiji is well-known as a filming location for Western and Bollywood films, I don’t know that they have any local films this year.

38. FINLAND has more films eligible than usual (about 30 features plus a few documentaries) but fewer contenders. No film has “broken out” and this year is a wide-open race. I predict the Finns will send “Naked Harbour”, a popular portmanteau film featuring a number of characters and nationalities living through a cold, Finnish winter. One Finnish Ambassador quipped that the dark film shows “everything about Finland he would not want outsiders to see”, but it has proved popular nonetheless. Finland often chooses these character-driven stories for the Oscars. Close behind will be historical drama “Silence”, a Best Film nominee at last year’s Jussi Awards that tells the story of a brigade of civilians tasked with bringing home Finland’s war dead home to be buried after WWII. Unlike most European countries, Finland rarely sends historical dramas to the competition (they send films set in the past, but that’s not the same thing). “The Road North”, a father-son road movie by Mika Kaurismaki (Aki’s brother), will premiere next month. I’ll place it third. Two years ago, Finland chose a documentary. Since none of the films here are universally praised, they may wish to do that again and choose “Forever Yours”, a well-reviewed doc about the lives of foster children which won Best Doc at the Jussis last year. Very dark horses include black comedy “The Storage” whose dark humor is probably too local to play overseas, “Once Upon A Time in the North”, a historical drama set in the 1860s about a Finnish outlaws known as “hajyt”, and “Stars Above” which got mostly tepid reviews despite its Oscary story of three women living in three different eras of the 20^th century. The biggest film of the year of course is Nazi sci-fi comedy “Iron Sky”, but I don’t think it will come into play here.

39. FRANCE is usually one of the more difficult countries to predict since they have so many options. This year, I see three frontrunners: if they want to choose a critical auteur favorite with big stars, they’ll choose “Rust and Bone”. Directed by Jacques Audiard (“The Prophet”) and starring Marion Cotillard and Matthias Schoenarts (the breakout star of “Bullhead”), “Rust and Bone” received critical acclaim at Cannes 2012 for its peculiar romance of an unemployed and emotionally stunted young man and a recently handicapped whale trainer. If they want to choose a popular audience favorite, they’ll clearly choose “Les Intouchables”, a box-office hit comedy in France and (to a lesser extent) the United States. It’s about another odd couple….this time a quadriplegic millionaire and the petty thief from the projects he hires to be his live-in caretaker. I’ve seen the film and it’s an audience-pleaser with a lot of heart, and one which has gotten universally positive reviews. Though it’s a comedy at its core, It deals with issues serious enough to make it a sentimental contender for Oscar. Their third option is “Polisse”, a crime drama about a journalist working on a story about detectives from the Paris Child Protection Unit, and who becomes a witness to the sad, real-life cases of child abuse in the nation’s capital. “Polisse” was rumored to be France’s first choice last year but it premiered too late. The two dark horses are: “Farewell My Queen” (Berlin 2012), a lavish costume drama and biopic of Marie Antoinette, and “Chicken with Plums”, a live-action drama based on a graphic novel from the creators of “Persepolis”, about the last days of a Persian man’s life. More than any other country, France seeks to get an Oscar nomination each and every year and they’re upset they haven’t made it the past two years (“Declaration of War” probably deserved a nod….the well-meaning ”Of Gods and Men” did not). “Rust” has the reviews, but “Les Intouchables” has the buzz. I think “Les Intouchables” will rep France with “Rust and Bone” in second, “Polisse” a close third, and “Farewell My Queen” a distant fourth. “Renoir” won’t premiere in time.

40. GEORGIA is bragging that their 105-minute “The Forgotten King” is the longest “single take” film in cinematic history. That’s quite impressive if it’s true since the trailer darts back and forth between modern-day times and the 15^th century, and including car chases and shootouts. That selling point alone will probably get the film selected for the Oscars. Last year, I predicted “Salt White”, a drama about a series of characters working a seaside hotel but I think it’s actually eligible this year. It’s been representing Georgia at a number of film festivals and it should come in second this year. Beauty contest dramedy “Keep Smiling” actually sounds the most entertaining, but it probably has too much competition.

41. GERMANY- doesn’t have too many good options this year. The two top winners at the Lolas were “Stopped On Track” a grueling film about one man’s battle against a deadly form of cancer, and “Barbara”, about a female doctor in East Germany who is exiled by the authorities to a small town. The two other big contenders include “Lore” (Locarno, Toronto), about German kids (including Hitler Youth members) living through the aftermath of World War II, when their whole ideological education is in shambles. It’s scheduled to be released after the deadline but could get an early release. The other is “Three Quarter Moon”, a comedy about a grumpy middle-aged taxi driver and his emerging relationship with a Turkish-German woman and her daughter. I want to predict “Lore”, but its late release date and its Australian director and international crew means the Germans may not consider it...Then I would want to pick “Stopped on Track”, but that was shortlisted by Germany last year (though it doesn't appear to have opened until later), making it also seem unlikely...That's followed by “Barbara”, “Three Quarter Moon” and dysfunctional family drama “Home for the Weekend” (Berlin) rounding out the Top Five. In a weak year like this one, I suppose Germany could choose an unlikely dark horse like: “Combat Girls” (3rd Place at the Lolas), about a female neo-Nazi and “Cracks in the Shell”, a thriller about an aspiring actress. I'm really unsure on this one. Germany should announce its shortlist in late August. Let's say "Barbara", although I'm pretty sure the Germans will choose some new film that hasn't come out yet. I don't have confidence in anything that's come out so far.

42. GREECE used to automatically choose the winner of the Thessaloniki Film Festival, but they got rid of that rule a few years ago. Last year, they “recommended” that the winner of Best Film at the Hellenic Film Awards be selected (it was). This means that the two obvious frontrunners are “City of Children” (winner of the two main awards in the Greek Film Section at Thessaloniki) and “Unfair World”, which won Best Picture, Best Director plus two Acting awards at the Hellenic Film Awards (“Children” won Screenplay and one of the other Acting awards). “City of Children” tells four disturbing stories centered on couples and childbirth while “Unfair World (which I skipped at the DC Film Festival), a black comedy about a corrupt cop nearing retirement which is often compared to a lame version of Kaurismaki. High-profile black comedy “Alps” by Yorgos Lanthimos, about a strange little company that earns money by impersonating the dead, should also have a shot at the award since Lanthimos gave Greece its first Oscar nod in three decades with the overrated “Dogtooth”. There’s also “L” (Sundance), a tragicomedy about a man who’s reduced to living in his car, and one of the losing Best Picture nominees at the Hellenic Film Awards, family drama “Burning Heads”. Despite very poor reviews, I’m going to guess “Unfair World”, followed by “Alps” and “City of Children”.

43. GREENLAND (last submitted 2010) sent a single film two years ago. With a population of only 57,000, this huge island is the smallest country (by population) ever to enter the Oscar competition. They now produce roughly one film per year. This year, they have a problem. Their biggest film, “Shadow in the Mountains”, a horror film based on local mythology, appears to have been released two months before the release date, making it ineligible. The film I predicted last year, “Inuk” was released in Greenland in 2012, shot in Greenland in the Greenlandic and Danish languages….but it has an American director and a mostly French crew which means it may suffer the same fate as “Maria, Full of Grace” and “Forgiveness of Blood”. For the record, “Inuk” is about a teen who journeys thousands of miles from Greenland’s south to north.

44. GUATEMALA (last submitted 1994) hasn’t sent a film to the Oscars in 18 years. I think they have two eligible films that I know of are “Capsules”, a low-budget family melodrama about a 12-year old whose mother is dating a drug dealer and whose father returns from years out of the picture. It’s notable for being the first Guatemalan feature directed by a woman. Then there’s “Holy Cow!”, about two women who meet at a funeral and learn they have inherited a cow from their mutual lover. They won’t enter, but I think “Capsulas” has a better chance (although I’d rather see the comedy “Cow”).

45. HONG KONG’s choice would be easy if the year ended today. It would almost certainly be “Life Without Principle” (Venice), a slow-burn crime thriller directed by Johnnie To who has been nominated to represent Hong Kong three times or, less likely, “Flying Swords of Dragon Gate” (Berlin), an expensive martial arts drama directed by Tsui Hark, starring Jet Li, and set in the Ming Dynasty. Both got nominated for Best Picture at this year’s Hong Kong Film Awards but both lost to “A Simple Life”, last year’s HK nominee, which probably came very, very close to reaching the 9-film Oscar shortlist. That said, neither film has gotten great reviews and both will probably be swept aside by one of a number of upcoming much-anticipated new releases. But which one? I’m predicting “Silent War”, a spy thriller starring Tony Leung as a blind spy and directed by the team that brought us “Infernal Affairs”. It premieres in August. Other possibilities that could be chosen if they’re good include the 60-million dollar fantasy movie “The Monkey King” (July), gangster drama “Drug War” (also by Johnnie To; TBD), and all-star police-crime thriller “Cold War” (Aaron Kwok + Tony Leung; TBD). In the background are “The Grandmasters” by Wong kar-wai, experimenting with the action genre, “The Guillotines” by Andy Lau and, less likely Jackie Chan’s “Chinese Zodiac” . None are scheduled to premiere until December, but Hong Kong has done limited “early releases” three of the past four years to make the Oscar deadline. I pretty confident about “Silent War”.

46. HUNGARY’s film industry has been going through a crisis lately. Last year’s Hungarian Film Week (their main film festival/national awards) was delayed….This year it was canceled, and then held with virtually a zero budget due to the lack of any state support. Despite all these problems, three Hungarian films have been wowing festival audiences this year (although Istvan Szabo’s English-language “The Door”, starring Helen Mirren, is not eligible for the Foreign Oscar). Hungary’s choice will be between “The Exam” and “Just the Wind”. “Just the Wind” won the Silver Bear and two other smaller awards in Berlin, and tells the story of a series of murders directed against Hungary’s disenfranchised Roma Gypsy minority (a bit like last year’s submission from next-door Slovakia). “The Exam” is a thriller about a few hours in the lives of two lovers on Christmas Eve in 1957, and the effect of the paranoiac Communist environment on their lives. Hungary can be unpredictable, but I think “The Exam” is a far more likely choice. “Dear Betrayed Friends”, which will premiere shortly in Sarajevo, is a possible dark horse. Like Oscar winner “The Lives of Others”, it looks at the subject of Communist informers, and what happens when a man discovers his best friend of many years reported on him to the Communist authorities for decades. “Istanbul” and “Maiden Danced to Death” may have a few supporters, but they’re out of their league this year.

47. ICELAND has six eligible films by my count, including three new movies that will premiere this summer. The two front-runners are “Black’s Game”, a slick, gangster drama about the Reykjavik underworld in 1999, and “The Deep”, about the sole survivor of a shipwreck trying to survive on an isolated lava field. Western critics have said “Game” is derivative of dozens of other genre flicks, while “The Deep” seems to be going for something more original than an Icelandic version of “Castaway”. “The Deep” is also directed by Baltasar Kormakur (selected by Iceland in 2001, 2007 and 2008) and is my pick for the award. Dark horses include black comedy “Rock Bottom” and horror-thriller “Frost”, whose trailer reminds me of an Icelandic “Blair Witch Project”. Either one could be really good and get the Icelandic nod.

48. INDIA- TBD

49. INDONESIA’s film industry is maturing nicely and they have three good films that would represent the country well at the Oscars this year. My prediction is “Soegija”, an expensive period drama set in the 1940s about a Catholic bishop who protested against the Dutch and Japanese occupations. Director Garin Nugroho is one of Indonesia’s most acclaimed, it’s been fifteen years since he represented Indonesia at the Oscars. “Soegija” has caused a controversy among Islamists who claim it is an attempt to convert Indonesia to Christianity (some people don’t have enough to do in their lives). Almost equally likely is “Postcards from the Zoo”, a rare Indonesian film that competed at a major international festival (Berlin 2012), about an orphan girl raised among zoo animals and street performers at a local zoo; and “Sang Penari” (The Dancer), a critically acclaimed period romance that won Best Picture at the Indonesian Film Festival in 2011, but strongly features Indonesian culture. Dark horses include “Dilemma”, a multi-strand drama that won the most nominations at this year’s Indonesian Move Awards, and “Lovely Man”, the story of a transsexual reunited with his deeply religious daughter, which is acclaimed largely for its lead performance. Soccer youth dramedy “Garuda di Dadaku 2” won Favorite Film at the Indonesian Movie Awards and action-thriller “The Raid” got a U.S. release, but I don’t think these popular films will be considered.

50. IRAN is returning champion for the first time ever. Richly deserved. I’m so happy that the Iranian Academy sent “A Separation”, which was no means a certainty at this time last year (“A Separation” lost Best Picture at the National Fajr Film Festival, although it was nominated). Despite Iran’s historic win, Iranian national cinema has been pretty quiet this year, if you exclude films films like Abbas Kiarostami’s Japanese-language “Like Someone in Love” or films like “Circumstance” made my Iranian exiles. Clearly, these films will not be considered by the authorities in Teheran. Iran often makes strange choices (2003, 2010), although they tend to send quiet family dramas. This year, I predict they send “The Bear”, the winner in Shanghai, one of the few Iranian films to appear on the international festival circuit. It’s about an Iranian man released after ten years as a POW to find that his wife and family has moved on with their lives. If they want to reward “A Separation” they could choose “Snow on the Pines”, the directorial debut of star Peyman Moadi, and which also features a troubled marriage. Neither of these films did very well at Fajr (“The Bear” won Best Actor, “Snow on the Pines” got a single minor nomination) but that shouldn’t hurt their chances. In third place: “Bulletproof” , co-winner of Best Picture at Fajr, featuring a 50-year old man who learns he has two months to live. Rounding out the Top Five: “A Simple Love Story”, about a girl who wishes to put off her long-planned betrothal to a family friend and “Kissing the Face of the Moon”, about two women who have waited two decades for the arrival of news. On paper, “Days of Our Life”, the big winner at Fajr and medieval period drama “Road to Paradise” look good, but “Days” is the sort of patriotic war drama that the Iranians rarely export overseas, and “Paradise” looks pretty but is not the sort of intimate film the Iranians tend to choose. Even darker horses: “Salute to Angels”, about a little girl trying to help her ill grandmother and “The Last Step”, about a man who returns to his hometown to attend a funeral.

51. IRAQ (last submitted 2010)’s film industry is centered on its northern Kurdish region, and three of its four submissions were wholly (2005, 2007) or partially (2010) in the Kurdish language, spoken by 20% of the population. As such, the two front-runners to represent Iraq this year are both Kurdish films (both directed by exiles based in Scandinavia) and a lot will depend on whether they are screened in Iraqi cinemas or just on the international circuit. The front-runner is Swedish co-production “Bekas”, a drama about two poor boys who believe that Superman will swoop down and save them by helping them to emigrate to the West. Director Karzan Kader won a student Academy Award for his short film of the same name. The challenger is “Red Heart”, a Norwegian co-production, about a young Kurdish couple on the run from the girl’s impending arranged marriage. “Red Heart” has played internationally, while “Bekas” has yet to premiere. Dark horse: Mohamad al-Daradji, who repped Iraq in 2006 and 2010, has a new documentary- “In My Mother’s Arms”- about a Baghdad orphanage.

52. IRELAND sent a film last year that was made by an Irish director in Macedonia, about war crimes against women in Bosnia. It won Best Picture at the 2011 Irish Film Awards against more traditional Irish fare. This year, I don’t think they have any Irish-language fiction films. They’re unlikely to send anything but if they decide they want to be creative, I predict they’ll send Romanian-language feature-length documentary “Off the Beaten Track”, directed by Ireland-based, Romanian-born documentarian Dieter Auner. It’s a gentle documentary about shepherds in Transylvania.

POSSIBLE DEBUTS?:

CYPRUS is one of only two EU Member States (along with MALTA) who don't participate in the Oscar race. This year’s “Fish n’ Chips”, a comedy-drama about a Cypriot in London who moves back to his home country, would be an excellent first submission to get the country on the world cinematic map. It got a Best Picture nod at the Greek Academy Awards. HAITI could send “Stories in the Sun”, about the Haitian immigrant experience to the United States. It won an award in Sundance for its Haitian-American filmmaker.

Next up: ISRAEL to the PHILIPPINES

Well, here is the first batch of predictions where we look at the 17 films from Western Europe. The Western Europeans used to dominate this category, but they have lost momentum in recent years as films from Latin America and the Middle East have been grabbing a growing number of spots.

Despite the 65 films in competition, I think this will be a rather weak year, especially for Europe.

NO CHANCE-

17. GREECE- “Attenberg”
16. SWITZERLAND- “Summer Games”
15. ITALY- “Terraferma”
14. PORTUGAL- “Jose and Pilar”
13. UK- “Patagonia”

Middling reviews will doom the two Italian-language films (from Italy and Switzerland) to oblivion, the UK’s film lacks “oomph”, Portugal’s is the wrong genre, while Greece’s film is too weird and divisive (although I said last year, when they DID get nominated!).
GREECE's “Attenberg” is an experimental black comedy that involves a strange young adult girl experimenting with kissing and making animal noises. The film has all of the quirkiness of last year’s surprise nominee “Dogtooth” without that film’s (inexplicable) good reviews. Not everybody dislikes “Attenberg”, but a lot of people do, and this will keep this film at the bottom of the charts this year.
“Patagonia”, “Summer Games” and “Terraferma” simply don’t have good enough reviews to advance to the next round. Switzerland's “Summer Games” was the surprise winner of the Swiss Oscar competition, which takes into account votes from the public. It’s a dark drama about parents and their teenaged children on a holiday by the sea. A disturbing first hour (which I’ve heard includes the killing of an animal) apparently turns off a lot of viewers before an eventual cathartic ending, but by then it may be too late. It’s also by far the lowest-profile and most obscure film from Western Europe this year, making it likely to get lost in the shuffle. Italy's “Terraferma” is a baity film about illegal African immigrants trying to make it to Europe, and an Italian family who may or may not try to assist them. However, reviews have been surprisingly poor and no one seems to like the movie. The UK's “Patagonia”, a quirky film that features two stories about cross-cultural connections in Wales and Argentina (an old Argentinian woman returns to her ancestral village in Wales...Welsh tourists visit Argentina) has slightly better reviews, but most people prefer one story over another and though it's a good film they say it's also uneven, overlong and out of its league here.
“Jose and Pilar” (PORTUGAL), has actually gotten excellent reviews, but its subject matter- a renowned Portuguese Nobel Laureate and author- is not likely to resonate as much with an Oscar committee that is looking for high drama and strong production values (remember...a lot of voters come from the technical branches...), and they(like me...) may not be familiar with Jose Saramago and his wife. Still, it’s said to be an accomplished documentary (though it failed to make the AMPAS documentary shortlist).

UNLIKELY

12. DENMARK- “Superclasico”
11. ICELAND- “Volcano”
10. BELGIUM- “Bullhead”
9. SPAIN- “Black Bread”
All four of these films are going to have an uphill climb to an Oscar nod. Returning champion Denmark shocked Oscar prognosticators by choosing a fluffy comedy about a schlub and his teenaged son going to visit his ex-wife in Buenos Aires (who has run off with a hot, young football player). It’s all supposed to be very entertaining, but not much more than that. It’s hoping for an “Everybody Famous”/”Simple Simon” slot on the shortlist.
The other three films are anything but comedies...I’ve seen “Bullhead” (which has the best reviews of the four) but I found this violent noirish and occasionally confusing thriller about provincial Belgians involved with selling hormone drugs to fatten cattle to be pretty inconsequential, although there are clearly many who disagree with me. In the end, I kind of felt like “so what?” Iceland’s “Volcano” seems too downbeat and minimalist to succeed here. It’s the story of an elderly retiree, estranged from his children, whose life is turned upside down when his wife falls ill. This Cannes drama is perhaps best-known for its elderly actors in sex scenes, but I don't see that as helping the film much!
As for “Black Bread” from Oscar powerhouse Spain, the film is said to be an exceptionally accomplished film, but also very confusing to those of us who are not familiar with the post-Civil War era in Spain. The film is a murder mystery/war drama/children’s story/morality tale about a child from the losing side of the Civil War whose father is accused of murder after his son finds a corpse. Oscar loves kids, loves Spain and loves war, but I fear “Bread” may miss out due to context.

DARK HORSES

8. IRELAND- “As If I Was Not There”
7. SWEDEN- “Beyond”
6. GERMANY- “Pina”
5. NORWAY- “Happy, Happy”
All of these films have a chance at grabbing at one of the lower rungs of the nine-film shortlist, but in the end I think that all of them will miss out.
Ireland’s “As If I Was Not There”, is a wrenching film set in Bosnia, about a Bosniak lady teacher who is rounded up and sexually assaulted by Serbian troops during the Yugoslav wars. Everyone says it’s a powerful piece of work, but its quiet realism may not be able to break through the pack. Also, ever since “No Man’s Land” won the Oscar ten years ago, the Oscars have never shown any interest in the conflicts in the Balkans.
Scandinavia’s “Beyond” and “Happy Happy” have been touted as strong possibilities for the shortlist, but reviews have not been universally strong. “Beyond” looks great on paper as up-and-coming star Noomi Rapace stars as a Swedish wife who reluctantly returns to her visit her dysfunctional and abusive family when her mother falls ill. Its the sort of family drama that Sweden used to be nominated for on a regular basis, but reviews for this female-driven film vary from very good to tepid. It may have better luck at the Globes. “Happy Happy”, a romantic comedy about the relationships of two married couples living next door to each other in rural northern Norway, is a fun film with good performances, but it’s also quite slight (and the a cappella singers got on my nerves...). Still, reviews have been stronger than expected (winning Sundance) and the film has the potential (certainly more than Denmark) to get a “Simple Simon”/”Everybody Famous” sort of nod.

As for Germany’s dance tribute “Pina”, it clearly has the strongest reviews of the four films here, but I think its weird genre-defying format (it’s a documentary! No, it’s a dance concert! No, it’s a 3D movie!) will annoy (bore?) too many in the large committee who feel the film doesn’t belong in this category, and will also fail to be rescued by the elite committee who will prefer to select films with a fiction narrative (but I could be wrong...the elite committee is still an enigma).

VERY POSSIBLE

4. AUSTRIA- “Breathing”
3. NETHERLANDS- “Sonny Boy”
Austria has chosen a quiet, introspective film (“Breathing”) about a young man serving time in a juvenile detention facility, who finds success at a part-time job working as a mortician’s assistant while dealing with feelings of guilt and loneliness. Although it may be too minimalist and/or cerebral for the Academy, it has gotten very positive reviews and won a minor award at Cannes. The film from the Netherlands, “Sonny Boy”, has not gotten very positive reviews at all. In fact, many critics dislike this film about the taboo relationship between an older, married Dutch woman with a young, black Surinamese in the 1940s, who end up having a baby (Sonny Boy). It ranks 15th of the 17 Western European films on IMDB (it just barely finished ahead of the UK, and way ahead of bottom-ranked Greece) and could not even manage a Best Picture nomination at this year’s Golden Calf Awards in Holland. So, why rank it in third place? The film is total Oscar bait, and the Netherlands knows it. The movie is said to be extremely emotionally involving and exactly the sort of tearjerker that the Oscar committee traditionally goes for. That said, the Oscar committee has been bolder and less traditional in recent years, so pushing their “like” buttons may not be enough anymore. However, like the critically maligned film from Russia, “Sonny Boy” definitely is in with a shot.

FAVORITES

2. FINLAND- “Le Havre”
1. FRANCE- “Declaration of War”

Italy has won more Oscars than France (13-12), but French-language films have the edge over Italian-language films (15-12). Chalk it up to the beauty of the French language (or be cynical and say it’s because French is spoken is many more countries) but I think the two Western European films that will be on the Oscar shortlist are the two movies in the French language.
Finland’s “Le Havre” would not have been eligible to represent Finland a few years ago, but a rule change means it is perfectly acceptable for them to send a film filmed in French and set in France. Aki Kaurismaki’s simple comedy of an old man taking in an illegal African immigrant is said to be one of his more accessible (will I like it? I doubt it, but I’ll try to see it in December when it comes out here in Washington DC) and the “old person teaches and learns from young person” is known to be a fetish plot for Oscar voters. It has a good chance of being recognized by either committee, so it doubles its chances.
France’s “Declaration of War” is even more baity. This semi-autobiographical story of a young couple trying to survive an emotional roller-coaster when their infant child is diagnosed with a deadly form of cancer is said to be well-made and well-acted, with a great deal of heart, gentle humor and a heart-tugging plot line. There are no bad reviews out there, and although it has not won any big awards, this has never been an impediment to Oscar, which doesn’t mind ignoring Cannes/Berlin/Venice winners for something more commercial. France was somewhat at a loss as to what to choose this year, but this semi-commercial feature (not made for film festivals) seems to have been a good choice. I think it’s in...

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 19

Number of countries participating this year: 17

Number of countries disqualified: None

Number of countries opting out: GREENLAND, which debuted last year, and LUXEMBOURG which had no eligible films in any of its three native languages.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: It’s a weak year worldwide, so I’d say about half....Maybe, seven.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: The world is getting more and more international with the Finnish film in French, the Irish film in Bosnian and the films from Denmark and the UK (but notably NOT Spain) filmed partially in Spanish. I count 14: Bosnian, Catalan, Danish, Dutch, French, German, Greek, Icelandic, Norwegian, Portuguese, Sicilian, Swedish and Welsh- plus smatterings of Finnish (in the Swedish entry), Italian and Spanish. At least five of the films are multi-lingual (Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Sweden, the UK and possibly also Germany).

Spain sent its first-ever Catalan film and Switzerland sent its first-ever film from the Italian community.

Highest profile film: Probably FINLAND’s breezy dramedy “Le Havre” by obnoxious auteur Aki Kaurismaki, although GERMANY’s 3D dancing documentary “Pina” by Wim Wenders has also gotten a lot of buzz.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: France, comme d'habitude.

Longest Shot for a Nomination: GREECE’s uncomfortable black comedy (?) “Attenberg”, whose reviews have been even more divisive than last year’s surprise nominee “Dogtooth”

Number of Comedies: Laugh-out-loud comedies from DENMARK and NORWAY plus FINLAND’s dramedy.

Number of Animated or Horror Films: None.

Number of Documentaries: One and a half. PORTUGAL chose a real documentary (“Jose & Pilar”), while GERMANY’s “Pina” sort of defies description but has generally been competing as a doc (it is also shortlisted for the Oscar documentary award).

Oscar History: Aki Kaurismaki is the only director to have received a nomination in the Best Foreign Language Film category, which he got for the over-rated “Man Without A Past” in 2003. However, an impressive three other directors have been nominated in other categories: Germany’s Wim Wenders (Best Documentary, Buena Vista Social Club, 2000), Iceland’s Runar Runarsson (Best Live Action Short, The Last Farm, 2006) and Ireland’s Juanita Wilson (Best Live Action Short, The Door, 2010).

Italy’s Emanuele Crialese (“Nuovomundo”) and Netherlands’ Maria Peters (“Little Crumb”) have both been selected by for the Oscar race once before, as has Spain’s Agusti Villaronga who co-directed Mexico’s 2003 submisson “Aro Tolbukhin”.

Nine of the seventeen countries have won an Oscar, while six others have been nominated. Only Ireland (which has only entered the competition once before) and Portugal (which holds the record for never winning) have never been nominated.

Number of Female Directors: Six! Pernilla August (Sweden), Valerie Donzelli (France), Maria Peters (Netherlands), Anne Sewitsky (Norway), Athina Rachel Tsangari (Greece) and Juanita Wilson (Ireland). Possibly a record! August is the first woman ever to represent Sweden.

Oldest and Youngest Directors: 66-year old Wim Wenders (Germany) is the senior statesman of the group, while 33-year old Miguel Goncalves Mendes (Portugal) is the youngest.

Familiar Faces: The most obvious answer is Swedish “it” girl Noomi Rapace (“The Girl With a Dragon Tattoo” who trades her tattoos and spiked hair for a more conservative look in Sweden’s “Beyond”, although American audiences will also be very familiar with "Patagonia"'s Matthew Rhys who just finished up a five-year run on “Brothers and Sisters". You’re also likely to recognize Sergi Lopez (“Pan’s Labyrinth”) in “Black Bread”, Kati Outinen a.k.a. Aki Kaurismaki’s muse in “Le Havre”, Swedish actor Stellan Starsgard who plays a doctor in the Bosnian-language Irish entry “As If I Was Not There” and Paprika Steen who plays the wife in “Superclasico”. And for those of you who watch the Oscar submission list year after year, Icelandic actors Throstur Leo Gunnarsson and Theodor Juliusson are both starring in their seventh Icelandic Oscar submission.

Tough Choices: Spain had the toughest choice this year, forced to choose between their well-reviewed 2010 Goya winner “Black Bread”, brand-new “The Sleeping Voice” and the latest quirky entry from Pedro Almodovar, “The Skin I Live In”. Almodovar’s plastic surgery horror film probably would have scared off elderly Oscar voters, so I think Spain chose well even if most bloggers disagree. Belgium, Denmark and Portugal have also suffered online criticism for choosing unlikely dark horses (violent, disturbing “Bullhead”, fluffy romantic comedy “Superclasico” and documentary “Jose and Pilar”) over three of the early favorites (“The Kid With A Bike”, one of the the Brothers Dardennes’ more accessible films, baity Danish family drama “A Family” and “Mysteries of Lisbon”, a sumptuous four-hour soap opera). I can confirm that all three of these were stupid moves. Also snubbed: Austria’s child abuse drama “Michael”, France’s period drama “The Princess of Montpensier” (why did nobody bring this up?), Germany’s “The Poll Diaries” (it was shortlisted), Iceland’s 2010 Edda winner “Undercurrent”, Italy’s papal comedy “We Have A Pope” and Norway’s acclaimed “Oslo, August 31st”.

Controversies and Changes: No big controversies, although one of the members of Denmark’s Oscar selection committee (actor Thomas Magnussen) was accused of vote selling when he contacted two of the three shortlisted directors with a CV indicating he was on the Oscar committee. The Danish Film Institute promised to investigate. Finland’s Aki Kaurismaki ended his ridiculous Oscar boycott, though that was not particularly controversial.

Number of countries I predicted correctly: Only three- ICELAND, IRELAND and SPAIN. I came super-close with AUSTRIA, where I predicted an upset, and BELGIUM (had “Bullhead” in second place behind “The Kid With a Bike”) and would probably have gotten FINLAND, if I hadn’t thought Kaurismaki would continue his pointless Oscar boycott. I’ll admit the documentaries from GERMANY and PORTUGAL, as well as DENMARK’s “Superclasico” took me completely by surprise.

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I’ve already seen the one I was really looking forward to seeing (Norway’s “Happy Happy”; B+) plus Belgium’s “so what?” thriller “Bullhead (C), so I guess now my top choices would be Denmark’s silly-but-fun comedy “Superclasico” and Britain’s Welsh drama “Patagonia”.

Last year's race: I’m proud to say I saw 13 of the 16 films submitted last year, missing only Austria (which will be released on DVD in the US next year), Norway and Switzerland. The best were from the films from the Netherlands and Spain, and the worst was the inept film from Portugal.

NEXT: The candidates from Eastern Europe

rihanna

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Foreign Film Oscar Prediction 2012-2013, COTE D'IVOIRE to IRELAND

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

2011-2012 OSCAR FOREIGN FILMS- Western Europe (17 Films)